29 June 2010

Willis, Stottlemyre To Swap Roles

Struggling starter Dontrelle Willis will switch roles and responsibilities with embattled pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr, the Diamondbacks announced Tuesday.

According to GM Josh Byrnes, the reassignments aim to optimize organizational resources in a challenged market, and are effective the moment the 46 year old Stottlemyre finds a glove to his liking.

We tried to get Dontrelle to aim the ball between on-deck circles, with mixed results. Mel doesnt throw very hard at his age, or quite as hard as his dad in Missouri, but I think our remaining fans will be pleasantly surprised with his command.
Willis, who has no formal coaching experience, enthusiastically supports the initiative and aims to succeed in his unfamiliar post.

"The ball just wouldnt stay down for me, but I'm down with this. Whatever. Anything that helps the club, you know? That's what I'm about."


Byrnes further defended what, flat on its face, appears to be an unorthodox move:

People may question, "Arent you changing the nature of the job a little bit?" Yeah, we'll do that.

Just because Dontrelle cant throw a strike, doesnt mean he cant inspire others to do so. We noticed how vocal he was with Edwin during the no hitter, and thought it was strange Edwin had never pitched anywhere near that well for Stott.

So, we wanted to capitalize on Dontrelle's unique mentoring skills. We feel we've done that.


General Partner Ken Kendrick chastised skeptical media members:

Some "experts" liken this to rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, but we think that's irresponsible. Firstly, the Titanic was an ungainly - and quite ostentatious - vessel, with lots of lifeboats, so it's hardly analogous to our efforts here.

I didnt get into this business to fail, or sink as it were. It's been five years now, and I dont honestly recall why I got involved exactly, but sinking twelve thousand feet straight to the bottom of the ocean wasnt in my wildest dreams.

At heart, I'm a modest man, operating a modest business, realizing modest returns, but despite what others may think, I do have wild dreams from time to time, when I feel it's appropriate. That's the key. I carefully assess whether or not it's appropriate, under the particular circumstances.

28 June 2010

Crazy Talk

Since the Diamondbacks have "run away from the competition" the last couple of Mays, like crazed thieves in the night, we sanely gravitate towards topics painfully unrelated to a pennant. Like bobbleheads, hot dog prices and AJ Hinch. But as we near the three month diagnostic point of this latest asylum visit, I thought we'd step outside the cell for a bit to stroll around the grounds.

Fat John Broxton blew just his second save - a three out, four run whopper - dropping the Dodgers to 40-35. According to ESPN's RPI, even after a set with the Yankees, LA's played an average schedule to date, and their expected record (pythag RS/RA) is just 38-37. Dont let the bright lights fool you. This is an average team, consistent with "manifold doubts" expressed here prior to Opening Day.

By contrast, the Padres have shocked. They havent shocked me as much as they've shocked most honest observers, because I've always understood they're structurally underrated. But to say I'm merely "surprised" they're four games up on the field, almost halfway in, doesnt do them justice. I'm somewhere between shocked and very surprised.

Here's today's standings:

San Diego 45-30

San Fran 40-34....4.5 back

Los Angeles 40-35...5 back

Colorado 39-36...6 back

Arizona 30-46...15.5 back


...and today's "expected" standings, per RS/RA(pythag):

San Diego 45-30

San Fran 42-32

Colorado 41-34

Los Angeles 38-37

Arizona 31-45


Essentially, the Rockies and Dodgers do a little flip, but everyone else is where they "belong". Despite a disappointing half, Colorado, the most popular preseason favorite, are in fine position to make a run. The Giants are competitive.

Which leaves "the asylum". In 2009, the Dodgers raced away from the entire field and we kinda defined the Dbacks' season, at least early on, in terms of "being behind the Dodgers". It was hard to stomach and took center stage - the way we fell eight back so quickly under Melvin, and eventually 25 back under Hinch. But what got lost or discounted in that perspective was how, for the first time under AJ, we fell so far behind everyone else.

That didnt happen under Melvin and Bryan Price. They finished first in 2007, second in 2008 (a few games back of LA), and they were right with everyone else (except LA) when Bob got fired. That shifted seismically, after Josh, AJ and Mel Stottlemyre Jr shook things up.

To be fair, people often cite Brandon Webb. There's no doubt his absence underlays part of the post-Melvin decline, but I think it's neatly counterbalanced by factors in the other direction. Melvin didnt have Dan Haren in 2007. We played very well then, with Doug Davis and Livan as 2nd and third starters most of that year. The best players on that whole team were Orlando Hudson and Eric Byrnes.

Melvin was also never furnished with a real first baseman, like Adam Laroche. More important than any of that, he was forced to field a talented but largely underaged core (Drew, Upton, CY, Reynolds, Scherzer and occasionally Montero) which everyone expected to naturally improve with age and experience, and which for the most part, has. In summary, Webb's absence hurts alot, but when I hear smart men like valuearb, over at dbbp.org, lay out cases for Melvin's inherited advantages over Hinch, it makes one wonder how often they go out for lunch.

We need to define this more precipitous, post-Melvin competitive failure, by its appropriate terms. Not in terms of Los Angeles, but by how badly we've fallen behind our budgetary and market brethren, loosely speaking. It would be different, if we were battling those guys and the McCourts got it together and simply stomped on the field. Then we could more honorably bitch about Colangelo's deferred salaries and the Byrnes extension.

But we're not even competitive. Not in a seasonal sense, for two seasons now. So that other stuff shouldnt even be in the conversation. The $37M Padres are not merely competing with us. They are systematically kicking our ass, with the likes of David Eckstein, Jon Garland and a bunch of kids nobody's ever heard of. Let's stop pretending that's a Brandon Webb problem. Or a market problem. Or random variation.

There was nothing random about what happened on May 8, 2009, when, relative to the rest of the division, the Diamondbacks stopped being a competitive concern. All the rest is crazy talk.

27 June 2010

The Times, They Are A Fakin'

Josh Byrnes, last week in The NY Times:

In a market like ours, we have to be disciplined with managing our payroll...

Market not only implies disadvantage, but an external, static handicap beyond franchise control. To be fair, he's talking to a New York reporter, covering the biggest, most lucrative market in the sport, but for an articulate spokesman like Byrnes, there probably are more accurate nouns than "market" at his disposal.

ESPN.com's Rob Neyer picked up on this. Here's his response to that portion of the Byrnes interview:

I'm not exactly sure what Byrnes means when he references "a market like ours" as if that were a bad thing. Last year the Phoenix metropolitan area was the 12th most populous in the United States, and growing incredibly quickly (sure it's a desert, but land is cheap and people are incredibly short-sighted); within a year or two, the region will break into the top 10.

Maybe the corporate support isn't there and maybe retirees won't pay top dollar for tickets and the people are definitely not concentrated within 20 minutes of the ballpark. But the Diamondbacks do not have a population problem.

Neyer's not exactly right either. There's conflicting evidence as to whether Phoenix is growing at all right now. It's certainly not growing incredibly quickly, like it has for a long time. But it's a substantial, spread out metro. The spread out challenge has been mitigated by improved freeways and signature light rail.

Corporate support has dwindled due to the economy and waning baseball utility. The Diamondbacks predictably responded by going where the money is, much like bank robber Willie Sutton, and heavily tied their enterprise to casino interests. As far as paying "top dollar" for tickets, the expensive box seats at Chase Field dont drive the vacancy issue. It's the mid to low range seats that Phoenicians feel are too high.

So, if selling your most expensive seats arent a real problem, and eager casinos are bankrolling your new stadium and half of what's in the old one, is it really "the market" disciplining your payroll? Relative to New York? Yes. Relative to most other MLB cities? Probably not. If fans arent buying enough tickets, can it really be tied to "market" if Colangelo sold substantially more tickets - to a younger, smaller metropolis with inferior public transport?

What's disciplining payroll isnt "market" nearly so much as "budget", which implies similar disadvantage, but not nearly the same determinism. A budget is a dynamic function of external and internal considerations. Ownership discretion and input are clearly implied, as are financial pressures stemming from a variety of internal actions, like bad contracts and fielding barely competitive teams.



The thrust of organizational advocacy is to make your boss look good. If you cant make him look good, like on the field, then you at least try to make him sound good in the papers. That's what this is about. Subtlely deflecting responsibility from Josh's bosses, and frankly, from himself.

As Neyer indicated, the Diamondbacks dont suffer from particularly unusual external challenges. It's an internal credibility issue that plagues them, that by dancing around with The New York Times, is becoming more "external" every day.

24 June 2010

Corridors of Change

Some years ago, the Yankees visited town for a set. An average of 48,200 inhabited BOB's rafters. It wasnt the World Series. It was 2004, amid a most trying season when they dropped 111 games.

Fast forward six years, to a metro Phoenix at least ten percent larger, serviced by a popular light rail system that whooshes by the stadium entrance every seven minutes or so. Colangelo's inheritors have, for years, insisted they proffer the lowest prices in baseball. And into this accessible bargain basement march the defending world champs, baseball's rock star roadies.

We only average 46 and change, on the rising tide of these Gotham gushers. Energetic crowds, who enjoyed an entertaining, closely contested series. But never has the ballpark on Jefferson been so overrun by alien foes of humanity (excluding in-game host "Mike" and one Trace Adkins concert).

At least we didnt hear claims of a sellout, as we so often do from Derrick Hall, when thousands of his most loyal, valued chameleons instinctively dress as dark green, hard molded plastic seats. Did he simply forget to bend the truth this time? More likely, he's too busy orchestrating a far bigger sellout, as his Dream Team feverishly co-opts a history they strategically discounted for half a decade.

They methodically demonized the father of that history, in the papers and on TV, even after they fired him. They blasted his business acumen and ethics. They snickered at his out of date, paternalistic culture. They denigrated the stadium only he was able to realize and from which they now hold court. They obliterated any vestige of brand continuity and the uniforms of a World Series champion. They not so casually denigrated fans' two irreplaceable heroes, Luis Gonzalez and Randy Johnson. And they denigrated fans themselves, chastising Phoenix for not supporting second and third rate teams and for not understanding the game or the daunting onus of keeping a franchise afloat in what they've disingenuously painted as an unusually challenged market.

Under the stands, there's a corridor, between the dugout and the clubhouse, through which all Diamondbacks pass. After practices, losses, wins. Even championships. One of the walls was purple and players wrote stuff on it. Left their personal marks for posterity, year after year. It was the players' wall and became a sentimental connection for some, between each other and between their ephemeral athletic selves and the concrete permanance of a stadium and a franchise.

Yes, the usurpers painted it over. Sedona Red. It sounds like a small thing, a petty thing to do or even to get upset about. Nonetheless, a startlingly tone deaf and unnecessary directive, with significant repurcussions. More important than the act itself was the indelible knowledge that a new leadership team would even want to do something like that.

It's not the only reason players here have been looking over their shoulders, and looking out for themselves, ever since. But it's one of many slights, triggering a toxic and ongoing disconnect between Kendrick/Moorad era management and players. When management casually disregards players feelings and paints over their little piece of immortality, players tend to perform with all the heart of a contractor or temporary worker.

A more recent, tone deaf directive was the shockingly insular hire of AJ Hinch. Same ivory tower disregard for player input or feelings. Same resulting morale issues. Same "inexplicably" discouraging results.

I guess the easy metaphor is about walls, of which there are now so many, stifling this organization. But the resonant metaphor, especially now, is really about painting things over. Kendrick, Moorad and MLB didnt just oust Colangelo to realize a better rate of return. Kendrick, in particular, was so angry at Jerry's spending that he felt compelled to paint over - literally and figuratively - the very creation and accomplishment that the spending brought.

Unfortunately for him, the creation he systematically obscured, to get back at Jerry, was the creation this city identified with, more than anything he's managed to create on his own terms, since. It must be an extraordinarily bitter pill for Kendrick, not just because he strutted around for years about how he was going to outperform Colangelo on the field, but moreso because Kendrick himself quietly funded a good chunk of the inaugural success.

After failing to field more than one team that outscored it's competition (barely), in six tries, the artist formerly known as Pious Earl has his paint brush out again. With another season and the fanbase escaping him daily, Kendrick has instructed his minions to suddenly embrace the purple past, with a frenzied lack of subtlety for which they are justly famous. Perhaps we'll explore the gaudy limits of this strategic deflection at a later date, after we've caught our breath and stopped holding our sides from laughter.

What's important to note for now, is that even the transparent dolts at azcentral.com see right through this similarly transparent charade. You cant obscure and obliterate the past at every turn for half a decade, then use that same past to suddenly obscure your unpalatable present. Well, I suppose you can try. These are, after all, people with a comically low opinion of their customers. They can continue to brush all they want, but that underlying contempt for fans hasnt changed, and will require more than another coat of paint.

20 June 2010

Fiery, Venerable Outfit Arrives At Chase


After another lukewarm roadtrip, something exciting is finally coming to Chase Field. Something destined to make local ballfans open their wallets and maybe even their mouths.

Yes, Derrick Hall has partnered with Macayos! To feed mediocre Tex-Mex to highly valued consumers of less than mediocre baseball. A cobranded win-win, or wince-wince, if ever there was one.



It's hard to say exactly what happened to Garcias, whose magnificent vegetarian burritos have been here since the beginning. Maybe their adios had something to do with SB1070 and Mr Kendrick's patronage of legislators supporting the bill? Or perhaps Garcias followed McDonalds' earlier disassociation with the regime, on financial or contractual grounds? After all, what would McDonalds know about running a business?

We may never know for sure, although history instructs us to brace for a Hall press release, insisting Garcia's opted out to spend more time with its family. For now, let's revel in the knowledge that Daron Sutton's prayers have finally been answered. For years, he's been pleading on-air,

"Let's get some RUUUUNNNNSSSS!!!"

Macayos to the rescue!

In other news, the Yankees and their thumpers are coming to town, presumably in search of tortillas.

15 June 2010

Fat American Know It Alls

The Diamondbacks dont stand a ghost of a chance! Not this season and certainly not in Fenway Park!

Fat American know-it-alls favor such deterministic dreck. You hear them everywhere. In each of the largest cities in the land. Gorging on ostentatious pork chops as they predict everyone else's future. Believe me, I monitor such humiliations.

But perhaps one fat American know-it-all can justify talk of ghosts. Bill James tallies "Ghost RBIs", roughly defined as when a batter advances a runner who later scores as a result of that advancement. In other words, when a batter doesnt get credit for the official RBI, but is partially responsible for bringing the runner home. That's a ghost RBI.

Related to productive outs, but not quite the same thing. Regardless, here's the National League rankings of so called "Ghost RBI's", by team:


Florida 78

Atlanta 71

LAD 70

Houston 68

Wash DC 68

Chicago 67

Milw 67

Colorado 64

--League Median 63.5--

Cincy 63

NY Mets 63

--League Mean 61.3--

San Fran 61

San Diego 55

St Louis 54

Philly 52

Pittsburgh 45

Arizona 35

As even a typical American sports enthusiast can probably now discern, Arizona hitters do little to assist their batting brethren. They also rank MLB last in productive outs.

Take a tip from Jamaal. Cooperation and sacrifice are critical to acheiving everything from mundane to earthshattering, heavenly goals. We're not trying to re-establish a caliphate here. For the love of Allah, just move the man over once in a while!

11 June 2010

Front Office 'Movement'

Per Sports Illustrated, Josh Byrnes "is said to be fighting hard for his hand-picked Hinch", presumably from the corporate bowels of Chase Field. At least someone in this front office is pushing, hard, for something. Sounds like a movement to get behind.

07 June 2010

I Back, You Back, Hall & Oates Back Away From D'back Flack, Jack

In eerie juxtaposition to Brandon Webb, 80's pop superduo Hall & Oates have cancelled their 2010 commitment to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The state's controversial immigration law, SB1070, was cited as probable cause by the timeless and talented purveyors of so called "blue eyed soul".

"I cant go for that", warbled lead singer Daryl Hall.

"mmm...no can do", added the olive complected Oates.

Their postgame performance, originally scheduled for July 2nd, was the brainchild of Diamondbacks president Derrick Hall.

"She's gone", a shaken Hall said of the nixed concert. "We better learn how to face it. She's gone. Ohhh I, I'd pay the devil to replace them. She's gone - what went rawwwng?"

03 June 2010

Creator of .370 Club Making Improvements, "Getting More Involved"


Since the Earl of Penury has hinted at transformative changes, bigger than Saul Rivera apparently, I guess I should chime in. After all, people used to flock to Diamondhacks from miles around, to get up to speed on all the latest vitriol and schadenfreude directed at our self styled Dream Team. So, if just one person still stumbles in here, by God, I will deliver vitriol and schadenfreude!

After ten straight losses, 31 innings without a run and half a decade without much of a clue, criticizing the Diamondbacks is like shooting large, slow fish in a...well in a desert, frankly. The hoi polloi have coalesced around the intuitive initiative that some combination of Hinch and/or JByrnes needs to go. Having studied Kendrick's tactics for years, however, and listening to his recent comments, I question whether either insider will exit straight away. Ken's odd and obstinate, but he must realize AJ's a bust. How could one not? I imagine he's showing support for Hinch now because he doesnt want to introduce a new manager against June's brutal interleague schedule - an awkward time to be fostering even the illusion of competitive progress.

Besides, Kendrick is almost assuredly more eager to cut costs and float hazy perceptions of long term progress, than invest in easily measured (and judged) short term moves in a 'lost' season. It sounds as if AJ's gonna stick around, at least through the most difficult stretch of games, much like Melvin before him.

And if AJ's safe it's hard to conceptualize Josh Byrnes getting the immediate boot either, despite Nick Piecoro's emphasis on JB's tenuous future. Perhaps an internal promotion, like Woodfork, is possible. It just seems exceedingly awkward for AJ to be thrust upon any GM coming from outside the organization.

Instead, I anticipate player moves to dump salary and prepare for next year and beyond. I also think Mel Stottlemyre Jr will be dismissed. This FO has a long history of blaming low level managers for encompassing, organizational shortcomings, and Stott's dismissal can easily be justified by Arizona's atmospheric ERA. It also serves to at least partially appease a hostile fan base lusting for management blood.

Who will this club's geniuses dump or trade this go round? Here's their priciest long term obligations, in millions: '

Justin Upton $50
Dan Haren $34
CY $24
Reynolds $14
Ed Jackson $12
Snyder $11
Drew *** (arbitration in 2011-2012)


Developing...