Jeff Bagwell, a decent minor leaguer with a future in bodybuilding, who eventually hit 449 MLB homers, didnt enter the Hall of Fame on his first try.
Pinch yourselves, sanctimonious moralists! Just to prove it's not all some wonderous dream. Is that wicked bastion of McCarthyism, the Hall of Fame, still standing? Check. Phew.
Showing posts with label Hall of Fame. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hall of Fame. Show all posts
06 January 2011
05 January 2011
Little Big Men
02 January 2011
What Voters Owe Jeff Bagwell
We owe him an absence of false certitude regarding steroids.
-- I dont know if he used or not, and wont pretend that I know. I have doubts, however, suspicions if you prefer, and believe they're reasonable and considered, apart from whether they're actually true. There's giant distinctions between considering usage and asserting guilt, and voters shouldnt assert guilt just because he looked big or accumulated certain numbers.
We owe him our individual, earnest sense of fairness.
-- Subjective fairness (ie good faith) is a more appropriate standard here than "due process", a legal term where justice delayed amounts to justice denied. Jeff Bagwell's not rotting in jail.
13 January 2010
Discounted Macs
For all the blather about PEDs and the Hall of Fame, there are really two major camps. People who feel admitted or probable drug use bars players from consideration, and people who dont. Those in the latter group often argue that PEDs "dont matter", and should be ignored for a variety of moral or practical reasons.
Fortunately, the gap between these entrenched extremes has finally been bridged by an independent voice of reason, our good friend from azsnakepit.com, who asks if we can dispassionately quantify McGwire's "clean" career stats for HOF consideration.
This was an intrepid question - three years ago, when I asked it - but it's fun to see Jim take credit for the idea now, as well as plug in some numbers to test "his" hypothesis. Mr McLennan reasons that andro etc inflated McGwire's tater tally by about 125, and that Mark's "clean", park adjusted OPS is roughly 20-25 points lower than his "dirty" 163.
I havent really thought about Jim's methodology, but am fine with his adjustments as a point of discussion. They actually sound pretty reasonable. Anyway, Jim researches and crunches this lengthy piece, and closes as follows:
Having seen the apparent scope of the benefit gained, I'm forced to conclude he shouldn't be allowed within a hundred miles of Cooperstown
Let's think about this, in light of Jim's numbers. He's estimated "clean" Mark would hit 458 homers (583-125) and have a career OPS+ near 140. Is it reasonable to conclude that a clean player with those credentials "shouldn't be allowed within a hundred miles of Cooperstown".
I would think not, considering of the fifteen eligible hitters in history who've met both thresholds, every single one has a plaque. That doesnt prove our theoretically clean Mac is a lock however. Fred McGriff met those thresholds, in spirit if not in fact, and didnt garner much support first time around, despite a notable absence of PED whispers attached directly to his candidacy.
The point is, McLennan's abrupt conclusion contradicts the tone and particulars of his quantatative analysis. A clean 458/140 guy is, by definition, an extremely serious HOF candidate, and clearly a better hitter than either Jim Rice or Andre Dawson, to name two recent "immortals".
One can only wonder why McLennan's about face concludes his otherwise logical essay. Maybe it's because, deep down, he feels PED users should be be automatically barred from HOF consideration. Fine. If so, it would be nice if he expressed that up front, instead of propping up statistical research to awkwardly reinforce his own predetermined beliefs.
Fortunately, the gap between these entrenched extremes has finally been bridged by an independent voice of reason, our good friend from azsnakepit.com, who asks if we can dispassionately quantify McGwire's "clean" career stats for HOF consideration.This was an intrepid question - three years ago, when I asked it - but it's fun to see Jim take credit for the idea now, as well as plug in some numbers to test "his" hypothesis. Mr McLennan reasons that andro etc inflated McGwire's tater tally by about 125, and that Mark's "clean", park adjusted OPS is roughly 20-25 points lower than his "dirty" 163.
I havent really thought about Jim's methodology, but am fine with his adjustments as a point of discussion. They actually sound pretty reasonable. Anyway, Jim researches and crunches this lengthy piece, and closes as follows:
Having seen the apparent scope of the benefit gained, I'm forced to conclude he shouldn't be allowed within a hundred miles of Cooperstown
Let's think about this, in light of Jim's numbers. He's estimated "clean" Mark would hit 458 homers (583-125) and have a career OPS+ near 140. Is it reasonable to conclude that a clean player with those credentials "shouldn't be allowed within a hundred miles of Cooperstown".
I would think not, considering of the fifteen eligible hitters in history who've met both thresholds, every single one has a plaque. That doesnt prove our theoretically clean Mac is a lock however. Fred McGriff met those thresholds, in spirit if not in fact, and didnt garner much support first time around, despite a notable absence of PED whispers attached directly to his candidacy.The point is, McLennan's abrupt conclusion contradicts the tone and particulars of his quantatative analysis. A clean 458/140 guy is, by definition, an extremely serious HOF candidate, and clearly a better hitter than either Jim Rice or Andre Dawson, to name two recent "immortals".
One can only wonder why McLennan's about face concludes his otherwise logical essay. Maybe it's because, deep down, he feels PED users should be be automatically barred from HOF consideration. Fine. If so, it would be nice if he expressed that up front, instead of propping up statistical research to awkwardly reinforce his own predetermined beliefs.
29 December 2008
Dont Believe The Hype
There is the Jim Rice that appeared to be, and the Jim Rice that really was, and that is what his Hall Of Fame candidacy boils down to.
In terms of appearances, Jim Rice was an unequivocal HOFer. He earned a whopping 3.15MVP shares (tied for 30th all time with Piazza), an impressive measure of worth bestowed by contemporary sportswriters. His iconic 1978 season is widely perceived as one of the finest individual campaigns of the last half century, and HOF talk followed Rice early in his career. He was, as most people outside of Mongolia are by now aware, "the most feared hitter of his day".
The problem with this, however, is that it's all bullshit. He deserved the 1978 MVP, but that wasnt one of the better MVP campaigns of the past thirty years, let alone one of the best alltime. He was an outstanding hitter for a short while and compiled very impressive seasonal counting stats for a variety of reasons:
1. He played in an unusually advantageous home park, especially for a RHB, before newer, smaller parks decreased Fenway's relative advantage
2. He batted third within many excellent lineups, maximizing plate appearances and opportunities with men on base.
3. He seldom walked, increasing his propensity for all counting stats -including outs.
4. Despite a somewhat truncated career, Rice was actually very durable during it.
Of course, Rice gets full credit for durability, but everything else discounts the true value of his statistical accomplishments. Everybody was knocking the ball around Fenway, creating runs. Jim Rice just happened to bat third. Dont believe me? Look at this:
Runs Created/27 Outs - Career
Some Red Sox HOFers
Williams 12.0
Ramirez 9.0
Boggs 7.1
Cronin 6.5
Yaz 6.3 - 3308 games, 7 gold gloves
In terms of appearances, Jim Rice was an unequivocal HOFer. He earned a whopping 3.15MVP shares (tied for 30th all time with Piazza), an impressive measure of worth bestowed by contemporary sportswriters. His iconic 1978 season is widely perceived as one of the finest individual campaigns of the last half century, and HOF talk followed Rice early in his career. He was, as most people outside of Mongolia are by now aware, "the most feared hitter of his day".
The problem with this, however, is that it's all bullshit. He deserved the 1978 MVP, but that wasnt one of the better MVP campaigns of the past thirty years, let alone one of the best alltime. He was an outstanding hitter for a short while and compiled very impressive seasonal counting stats for a variety of reasons:
1. He played in an unusually advantageous home park, especially for a RHB, before newer, smaller parks decreased Fenway's relative advantage
2. He batted third within many excellent lineups, maximizing plate appearances and opportunities with men on base.
3. He seldom walked, increasing his propensity for all counting stats -including outs.
4. Despite a somewhat truncated career, Rice was actually very durable during it.
Of course, Rice gets full credit for durability, but everything else discounts the true value of his statistical accomplishments. Everybody was knocking the ball around Fenway, creating runs. Jim Rice just happened to bat third. Dont believe me? Look at this:
Runs Created/27 Outs - Career
Some Red Sox HOFers
Williams 12.0
Ramirez 9.0
Boggs 7.1
Cronin 6.5
Yaz 6.3 - 3308 games, 7 gold gloves
Doerr 5.8 - 2nd baseman
Fisk 5.5 - catcher, 2499 games
Some Red Sox non-HOFers
Ortiz 7.8
Mo Vaughn 7.3
Nomar 7.0
Burks 6.6 - 2000 games, 2 gold glove
Smith 6.4 - 1987 games, 1 gold glove
Lynn 6.3 - 1969 games, 4 gold gloves
Evans 6.2 - 2606 games, 8 gold gloves
Rice 6.0 - 2089 games, 0 gold gloves
It's unfair to compare Rice with Nomar, Ortiz, or Mo Vaughn's rate stats here, because Rice played longer, but isnt it hard to reconcile this Runs Created list with the frothing Fenizens insisiting Rice was some kind of transcendent offensive force?
Rice was a high impact hitter and he's up against the same here, but after factoring in defensive and baserunning considerations, can there be much doubt that for much of his career, Jim Rice was less valuable than Dwight Evans and Fred Lynn - essentially Boston's third best outfielder? Was he honestly a better player than long forgotten Reggie Smith, or Ellis Burks - or thirty other guys?
Some Red Sox non-HOFers
Ortiz 7.8
Mo Vaughn 7.3
Nomar 7.0
Burks 6.6 - 2000 games, 2 gold glove
Smith 6.4 - 1987 games, 1 gold glove
Lynn 6.3 - 1969 games, 4 gold gloves
Evans 6.2 - 2606 games, 8 gold gloves
Rice 6.0 - 2089 games, 0 gold gloves
It's unfair to compare Rice with Nomar, Ortiz, or Mo Vaughn's rate stats here, because Rice played longer, but isnt it hard to reconcile this Runs Created list with the frothing Fenizens insisiting Rice was some kind of transcendent offensive force?
Rice was a high impact hitter and he's up against the same here, but after factoring in defensive and baserunning considerations, can there be much doubt that for much of his career, Jim Rice was less valuable than Dwight Evans and Fred Lynn - essentially Boston's third best outfielder? Was he honestly a better player than long forgotten Reggie Smith, or Ellis Burks - or thirty other guys?
Then there's the Boston-centric malarkey about how he was the most feared human since, evidently , their Strangler. These people really need to get out more. I was a Yankee fan at the time, and Rice was genuinely feared for a few years, but no more than Cecil Fielder, Pedro Guerrero, or a bunch of other Jack Clarks or Will Clarks not in the Hall.
Here's a list of the current crop of Hall candidates, sorted by career intentional walks:
Here's a list of the current crop of Hall candidates, sorted by career intentional walks:
Baines 187
Parker 170
Murph 159
McGwire 150
Raines 148
Mo Vaughn 144
Dawson 143
Mattingly 136
Grace 115
Matt Williams 86
Rice 77
Rickey 61
Greg Vaughan 54
Trammell 48
Gant 38
Bell 25
Parker 170
Murph 159
McGwire 150
Raines 148
Mo Vaughn 144
Dawson 143
Mattingly 136
Grace 115
Matt Williams 86
Rice 77
Rickey 61
Greg Vaughan 54
Trammell 48
Gant 38
Bell 25
...same list, but this time just the so-called sluggers:
Parker 170
Murph 159
McGwire 150
Mo 144
Hawk 143
Mattingly 136
Williams 86
Rice 77
Greg Vaughan 54
Gant 38
Murph 159
McGwire 150
Mo 144
Hawk 143
Mattingly 136
Williams 86
Rice 77
Greg Vaughan 54
Gant 38
Seriously, how feared could Jim Rice have been, by pitchers, the people who actually matter? He barely coaxed more free passes per game than Greg Vaughan, and is nowhere near the other sluggers. The other Vaughn, Mo, played 577 fewer games than Rice, with almost twice as many free passes. Even a Bostonian, blinded by remorse for booing Rice for the better part of a decade, should be able to discern who was the more feared hitter.
**********
Song of the Day - Dont Believe The Hype (Public Enemy)
14 December 2008
Middle of the Road
My Hall of Fame ballot: 
Rickey Henderson
Tim Raines
Bert Blyleven
Alan Trammell
which, incidentally, is identical to Rob Neyer's selections(see comment#16).
My rule of thumb for BBWAA candidates has evolved where they ought to be at or above the median level of previous enshrinees at their primary defensive position. In other words, I aim to induct players who enhance (or dont diminish) the standing of the overall body - which includes Veteran's Committee selections. By no means must they be icons like Aaron or Williams, but neither should they gain such early admittance, by merely outplaying the Hall's most dubious members. That clearly erodes the institution. Healthy institutions feature correcting mechanisms, and while Cooperstown wont (and probably shouldnt) retroactively oust poor selections, maybe we can provide that mechanism by agreeing not to further institutionalize history's weakest judgements.
By most modern measures, Henderson and Blyleven tower above the median HOFer at their respective positions, and Raines is pretty clearly above. He's 53rd all time (27th of 63 HOF OFers) in Career Runs Created, tied with Tony Gwynn. No eligible inductee higher than Tim on that list has ever been denied HOF membership, and tons of enshrinees fall below, way below, Raines' total of 1636 runs; Tim Raines created more runs than Gary Carter, Rod Carew or Roberto Clemente - and that's just the C's. Indeed, many HOFers, incl Jackie Robinson, Home Run Baker and the recently elected Joe Gordon failed to create even 1000 runs.
Trammell is not as clearly above my subjective median for Hall shortstops, but it's equally murky whether he's above or below that imaginary line, and that warrants my Yes vote.
Mark McGwire accumulated first rung HOF statistics. While I dont mean to categorically banish suspected PED users from consideration, neither can I, in good conscience, blithely admit a player until it's reasonably clear that PEDs were incidental, rather than integral to, his minimum HOF standing. Unlike Barry Bonds, for example, who established a HOF caliber career (1987-1998) before any hint of PED use, evidence of Mark's legitimate, PED-free greatness is, unfortunately, far less convincing.
None of the other candidates, as excellent as they were, meet the median criterion, in my view. A few are reasonably close, and the stone edifice on Cooperstown's Main Street wont spontaneously combust with their inductions, but it's important to remember - or understand - that history is also littered with scores, perhaps hundreds, of equally deserving players outside the Hall, and the imminent, largely media driven candidacies of legitimate but overrated stars like Jim Rice and Andre Dawson will gradually but inexorably erode the institution.
*************************
Song of the Day - Middle of the Road (The Pretenders)
Rickey Henderson
Tim Raines
Bert Blyleven
Alan Trammell
which, incidentally, is identical to Rob Neyer's selections(see comment#16).
My rule of thumb for BBWAA candidates has evolved where they ought to be at or above the median level of previous enshrinees at their primary defensive position. In other words, I aim to induct players who enhance (or dont diminish) the standing of the overall body - which includes Veteran's Committee selections. By no means must they be icons like Aaron or Williams, but neither should they gain such early admittance, by merely outplaying the Hall's most dubious members. That clearly erodes the institution. Healthy institutions feature correcting mechanisms, and while Cooperstown wont (and probably shouldnt) retroactively oust poor selections, maybe we can provide that mechanism by agreeing not to further institutionalize history's weakest judgements.
By most modern measures, Henderson and Blyleven tower above the median HOFer at their respective positions, and Raines is pretty clearly above. He's 53rd all time (27th of 63 HOF OFers) in Career Runs Created, tied with Tony Gwynn. No eligible inductee higher than Tim on that list has ever been denied HOF membership, and tons of enshrinees fall below, way below, Raines' total of 1636 runs; Tim Raines created more runs than Gary Carter, Rod Carew or Roberto Clemente - and that's just the C's. Indeed, many HOFers, incl Jackie Robinson, Home Run Baker and the recently elected Joe Gordon failed to create even 1000 runs.
Trammell is not as clearly above my subjective median for Hall shortstops, but it's equally murky whether he's above or below that imaginary line, and that warrants my Yes vote.Mark McGwire accumulated first rung HOF statistics. While I dont mean to categorically banish suspected PED users from consideration, neither can I, in good conscience, blithely admit a player until it's reasonably clear that PEDs were incidental, rather than integral to, his minimum HOF standing. Unlike Barry Bonds, for example, who established a HOF caliber career (1987-1998) before any hint of PED use, evidence of Mark's legitimate, PED-free greatness is, unfortunately, far less convincing.
None of the other candidates, as excellent as they were, meet the median criterion, in my view. A few are reasonably close, and the stone edifice on Cooperstown's Main Street wont spontaneously combust with their inductions, but it's important to remember - or understand - that history is also littered with scores, perhaps hundreds, of equally deserving players outside the Hall, and the imminent, largely media driven candidacies of legitimate but overrated stars like Jim Rice and Andre Dawson will gradually but inexorably erode the institution.
*************************
Song of the Day - Middle of the Road (The Pretenders)
08 December 2008
Rice is In!
After decades of inexplicable denial and whispers of racism, Jim Rice was finally elected to 
Baseball's Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY. In a special election limited to culturally passe side dishes, Rice outpolled a crop of eight hopeful accompaniments:
Jim Rice 76%
Spud Chandler 72%
Del Rice 58%
Sweetbreads Bailey 45%
Charlie Rabe 29%
Hee Seop Choi 14%
Oyster Burns 3%
Cuke Barrows 2%
Kevin Saucier 1%
"It's about time", rejoiced Steve Timke of Sommerville, MA. "At the plate, he was the most feared fixin' of his era. Trust me, back in the 70's, it was all Petrocelli this, Vermicelli that. People wanted nothing to do with Rice. "
***************
Song of the Day
Baseball's Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY. In a special election limited to culturally passe side dishes, Rice outpolled a crop of eight hopeful accompaniments:Jim Rice 76%
Spud Chandler 72%
Del Rice 58%
Sweetbreads Bailey 45%
Charlie Rabe 29%
Hee Seop Choi 14%
Oyster Burns 3%
Cuke Barrows 2%
Kevin Saucier 1%
"It's about time", rejoiced Steve Timke of Sommerville, MA. "At the plate, he was the most feared fixin' of his era. Trust me, back in the 70's, it was all Petrocelli this, Vermicelli that. People wanted nothing to do with Rice. "
***************
Song of the Day
04 December 2008
Just Say No (and no, and no)
Three former Dbacks, Jay Bell, Matt Williams and Mark Grace earned their way onto the 2009 Hall of Fame ballot.
Now, it's time to say No.
Bell was a solid citizen and underrated player but the closest he's getting to Cooperstown is the Hoyle of Fame.
Any outside shot Matt Williams had at induction plummeted due south, along with curious prescriptions from a Florida dentist, but it should be noted Matty accumulated four gold gloves and more MVP shares (1.86) than HOF third basemen Eddie Mathews (1.61) or Paul Molitor (1.43), and more than a host of other inductees incl Willie McCovey and Jackie Robinson.
Chicagoan Dan Bickley argued that Mark Grace's numbers, presumably clean, will benefit from a second look in the steroid era. That's true, but to suggest Grace deserves serious consideration requires a giant leap of common sense. This was a media darling who never finished in the top dozen in NL MVP voting. No amount of pharmaceutical correctness can reposition Grace into an arguably great player, let alone the equal of John Olerud.
Song of the Day: Dont Look Back - Temptations (Lead: Paul Williams)
27 May 2008
Last Week's Hacks
Two months ago, egged on by the usual suspects from the Dbacks sales department, local fanboys gushed how the West was the league's best division - some went so far as to call it the best division in baseball. One month ago, after just two squads managed to win half their games, Mark Grace conceded he was wrong. Today, only AZ and LA among the NL Worst are playing even .400 ball. Three of baseball's four worst teams reside in the division and Arizona's strength of schedule currently ranks 29th of 30 teams.
Trolling along at 10-13 in May, the Diamondbacks must win four of five to maintain their league leading streak of consecutive (7) non losing months. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim own MLB's longest current run (10), and with only four more months of winning will likely eclipse the length of their official team name.
Leave it to Doug Davis to rebound from thyroid surgery ahead of schedule with an impressive win that is overshadowed by some east coast "cancer fighter" who chucks a no hitter. Doug prefers it that way and so do I.
What's wrong with Diamondback hitters? As a group, they swing too hard, too high and too often. Maybe they can find a hitting coach, like Kevin Seitzer, to teach them to take the ball the other way. Like Augue Ojeda and Chipper Jones. What was the NL's top offense in April is now sixth or seventh for the season. The pitching (128 ERA+), even after Webb's latest losses, is still head and shoulders above the league. Fragile, elderly Randy Johnson whiffed ten Braves on Saturday in just six innings.
Grace and Sutton cleaned up their schtick for Johnson's start, Saturday's national Fox Game of the Week - and sounded like actual baseball announcers. Speaking of Grace, I agree with discounting suspected steroid users when it comes to Hall of Fame induction, but no amount of creative suspicion can reasonably catapult Grace into Cooperstown. The Hall is for great players and Mark Grace was never that, as evidenced by placing no higher than 13th in any MVP voting - despite considerable popularity fueled by WGN broadcasts prior to the explosion of cable TV. Mark carved out a very solid career at first base with two tools - as did JT Snow, John Olerud and many others who dont deserve induction.
Chris Snyder and Brandon Webb, a pair of white southerners, spoofed Saturday's pregame lineup, ridiculing Orlando Hudson and Migeul Montero's English enunciation in the process. My favorites were Conor "All Eyebrow Team" Jackson, Mark "Roger Dorn" Reynolds, and Justin "I Missed My 8th Grade Dance To Play Today" Upton.
Not only was Byrnes' Sunday slam the first of his career, it was also the second slam yielded by Glavine in 366 at bats with the bases jammed. (Something tells me that 366 included alot of starting pitchers.) The Glavine/Livan axiom about pitching around top tier hitters, which they've both exploited with great overall success, got trumped Sunday by the adage about getting burned by pitching with men on base all the time. In truth, both axioms are valid.
Perish the thought that a Memorial Day game might feature a pregame ceremony or fly by, an announcer's admonishment to remember fallen soldiers, and then on with the ballgame. Today, a baseball telecast is sufficient justification for an inning by inning glorification of the U.S. military, courtesy of FSNAZ and your Arizona Diamondbacks. Why, if you didnt know any better, you'd swear our volunteer force was at war, fighting for freedom, democracy, and our very way of life! Lengthy split screen interviews with military personnel, including one with a color guard champion that amounted to little more than a recruiting segment - in the middle of a ballgame.
A colonel was actually able to get a revealing word in edegwise, between Grace and Sutton fumbling over one another to laud him for his chosen career choice the prerequisite half dozen times. He made a special point to thank Daron's "organization" for providing much appreciated baseball quipment to his troops back in Kosovo in 1999. That was, of course, the Colangelo "organization" - the one that, as far as I know, never publicized their donation - they certianly never revolved a game telecast around it. Colangelo wasnt above blowing his own horn from time to time, but nobody blows it like these guys.
Ingratiating "reporter" Mark McCune has improved to the point where his standups with players and fans are less annoying than Todd Walsh's self indulgent, insider monologues. Mark's still very awkward behind the desk, but he's done some homework and improved as a sideline reporter.
Trolling along at 10-13 in May, the Diamondbacks must win four of five to maintain their league leading streak of consecutive (7) non losing months. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim own MLB's longest current run (10), and with only four more months of winning will likely eclipse the length of their official team name.
Leave it to Doug Davis to rebound from thyroid surgery ahead of schedule with an impressive win that is overshadowed by some east coast "cancer fighter" who chucks a no hitter. Doug prefers it that way and so do I.
What's wrong with Diamondback hitters? As a group, they swing too hard, too high and too often. Maybe they can find a hitting coach, like Kevin Seitzer, to teach them to take the ball the other way. Like Augue Ojeda and Chipper Jones. What was the NL's top offense in April is now sixth or seventh for the season. The pitching (128 ERA+), even after Webb's latest losses, is still head and shoulders above the league. Fragile, elderly Randy Johnson whiffed ten Braves on Saturday in just six innings.
Grace and Sutton cleaned up their schtick for Johnson's start, Saturday's national Fox Game of the Week - and sounded like actual baseball announcers. Speaking of Grace, I agree with discounting suspected steroid users when it comes to Hall of Fame induction, but no amount of creative suspicion can reasonably catapult Grace into Cooperstown. The Hall is for great players and Mark Grace was never that, as evidenced by placing no higher than 13th in any MVP voting - despite considerable popularity fueled by WGN broadcasts prior to the explosion of cable TV. Mark carved out a very solid career at first base with two tools - as did JT Snow, John Olerud and many others who dont deserve induction.
Chris Snyder and Brandon Webb, a pair of white southerners, spoofed Saturday's pregame lineup, ridiculing Orlando Hudson and Migeul Montero's English enunciation in the process. My favorites were Conor "All Eyebrow Team" Jackson, Mark "Roger Dorn" Reynolds, and Justin "I Missed My 8th Grade Dance To Play Today" Upton.
Not only was Byrnes' Sunday slam the first of his career, it was also the second slam yielded by Glavine in 366 at bats with the bases jammed. (Something tells me that 366 included alot of starting pitchers.) The Glavine/Livan axiom about pitching around top tier hitters, which they've both exploited with great overall success, got trumped Sunday by the adage about getting burned by pitching with men on base all the time. In truth, both axioms are valid.
Perish the thought that a Memorial Day game might feature a pregame ceremony or fly by, an announcer's admonishment to remember fallen soldiers, and then on with the ballgame. Today, a baseball telecast is sufficient justification for an inning by inning glorification of the U.S. military, courtesy of FSNAZ and your Arizona Diamondbacks. Why, if you didnt know any better, you'd swear our volunteer force was at war, fighting for freedom, democracy, and our very way of life! Lengthy split screen interviews with military personnel, including one with a color guard champion that amounted to little more than a recruiting segment - in the middle of a ballgame.
A colonel was actually able to get a revealing word in edegwise, between Grace and Sutton fumbling over one another to laud him for his chosen career choice the prerequisite half dozen times. He made a special point to thank Daron's "organization" for providing much appreciated baseball quipment to his troops back in Kosovo in 1999. That was, of course, the Colangelo "organization" - the one that, as far as I know, never publicized their donation - they certianly never revolved a game telecast around it. Colangelo wasnt above blowing his own horn from time to time, but nobody blows it like these guys.
Ingratiating "reporter" Mark McCune has improved to the point where his standups with players and fans are less annoying than Todd Walsh's self indulgent, insider monologues. Mark's still very awkward behind the desk, but he's done some homework and improved as a sideline reporter.
Saw "Indiana Jones and The Pre Columbian, Post Plausible Kingdom of Steve & George's Fossilized Skulls". I get it's supposed to be "fake", but when a franchise trades silly plausibility on a human scale for two hours of ridiculous death cheating CGI (Computer Generated Impossibility), the needed stage for empathetic entertainment evaporates and an important connection to vicarious viewers is lost.
For example, Indy might've survived the nuclear test blast by locking himself into an air tight fridge. This unadorned macho feat would've given The Most Interesting Man In The World a serious run for his dinero, but Speilberg and Lucas got greedy, or lazy, and demanded their middle aged professor emerge from his appliance's CGI enhanced trajectory and cartoonishly rocky landing with nary a scratch. It's meant in fun, but it's disheartening that mindful adventure fans are asked to buy this - and several other stunts - on any level. CGI driven storylines can rob the viewer of genuine suspense and here transfigure the famously resourceful human protagonist into a distant God that doesnt bleed. I could've easily hopped theatres to watch Hancock toss a beached whale a nautical mile instead, but prefer to cling to the ideal that the best cinematic "escapism" is still tethered to recognizable behavior and believable human response.
17 January 2008
What's My Line?
Clearly above the line
1. Blyleven - other than the .534 win%, a first ballot HOFer by every other statistical measure
2. Raines -more valuable than any of the OF candidates and the 2nd best leadoff hitter ever
Solid selections
3. Trammell - as good as half the shortstops in Cooperstown
4. Gossage - forget Lee Smith. Goose was better than Trevor Hoffman
***********************************************************
Very worthy candidates, perhaps just below the line
5. Parker - 3.19 MVP shares, most among OF candidates: Cobra's 1978 season better than Rice
6. John - 288 wins/4710 IP/110 ERA+; compare with Jack Morris: 254W/3824 IP/105 ERA+
7. Murphy - considerably higher peak than Dawson, but not as durable
8. Dawson - more defensive value than Murph, Cobra, Rock; consistent but overrated hitter
9. Morris - 68 wins over .500 is a ton, but 105 ERA+ is Jamie Moyer, Mickey Lolich territory
Poor selections
10.Mattingly - marvelous first baseman, but pretty much done by the time he was thirty
11. Rice - "Feared" Boston icon got pitched to - and booed - throughout his career at Fenway.12. Lee Smith - fine, durable closer, but probably no better than John Franco or Kent Tekulve
08 January 2008
My Hall of Fame Ballot
RainesTrammell
Gossage
Blyleven
By the time I finish this post, the Baseball Hall of Fame will have announced this year's BBWAA inductees, if any. Scuttlebutt suggests this is the year of the Goose, who might be joined by Dawson and/or Jim Rice. Lee Smith, Bert Blyleven and ballot newcomer Tim Raines round out the most likely candidates.
A popular HOF test, which I dont like as a stand alone criterion, is to ask if a comparable, positional counterpart is already in the Hall. "Comparable" is, of course, a loaded word, endlessly honed and redefined, but most of the new candidates are "in" by this lowest common measure. Slugging OFs like Rice, Dawson, Parker & Dale Murphy are conceivably all in, by way of Kirby Puckett; Tim Raines is clearly in by way of Lou Brock, and Gossage and Lee Smith are likely in "thanks" to Bruce Sutter. One could certainly argue Mattingly was the equal of Tony Perez or Orlando Cepeda at first.
The second test, a needed counterbalance to the first, is to locate contemporary positional "comps", who are not in Cooperstown. At 1B, for example, Will Clark and Jack Clark each played longer than Donny Baseball with considerably higher OPS+. Going back, Norm Cash and Dick Allen were better hitters than Mattingly, and Allen a better baserunner and comparable fielder. In the outfield, are any of today's slugging candidates really more deserving than Dwight Evans? Or even Fred Lynn? Ken Singleton? Cesar Cedeno? Barry Bonds' dad? Going back, are they more deserving than Reggie Smith or Jimmy Wynn, or one dimensional yet clearly superior hitters like Frank Howard or Rocky Colavito?
All these guys were summarily dismissed by the BBWAA, yet it's not clear to me that the careers of Dawson, Rice, Parker or Murphy were objectively better than any of these outcasts. One of the reasons it's so tough to distinguish between Dawson, Rice, Parker and Murphy is because none of them genuinely stands out as "great". Good as they were, they each have compelling arguments against them, and admitting one of them, when so many indistinguishable players of this caliber have been historically ignored, just doesnt seem right.
Tim Raines career OPS+ of 123 was slightly higher than all the wannabe OFs (except Rice 128), but Tim was a completely different prototype, in the Lou Brock-Rickey Henderson mold. He was a decent defender, not as good as Dawson or Murphy, but the ridiculous baserunning ( incl 800 steals @ an all time high 84% success rate) created enormous value beyond static OPS calculations. He needn't apologize for toiling in Montreal or for failing to be Rickey Henderson - his unusual, broad based skills, wielded over 2500 games, speak for themselves.In the infield, I voted for Alan Trammell. His career 110 OPS+ wont elicit oohs and ahhs, but half of Cooperstown's shortstops were lower than that - and Trammell was a gold glover who turned more DP's ( with 84 fewer errors) than Davey Concepcion. He was much better than Davey with the bat and at least his equal in the field. Was Trammell as good
as Ripken? No. Yount? No. Ozzie? Different prototype, but very likely no. Was he as good as Jeter? His range was a helluva lot better than Jeter, enough to make it an interesting comparison. Trammell was considerably better than Phil Rizzuto, he was better than Pee Wee Reese with the bat and glove, and alot better than Aparicio or overhyped swizzle sticks like Maury Wills and Omar Vizquel. The only comparable shortstop I can think of who recently fell short of induction was Tony Fernandez. It's quite reasonable to argue Alan's as good as half the SS's already in Cooperstown, and while I dont consider his lack of induction on the writer's ballot a glaring travesty, his paltry support from the BBWAA is rather puzzling.On the mound, we consider starters Blyleven, Morris and Tommy John with Goose and Lee Smith in the pen. I now learn that Goose, who I watched as a Yankee fan in the 70s, is this year's lone inductee. Congratulations, Rich. He fits comfortably within the class of relievers inducted before him - Wilhelm, Fingers, Sutter and the hybrid SP/RP Eckersley. Only Wilhelm was clearly more effective over a longer period than Gossage; Eckersley threw alot more innings with slightly worse ERA+, Sutter threw just 57% of the Goose's career workload, and Fingers was quite comparable, probably a tad worse.
One shouldnt read too much into Save totals, given the evolving and shrinking role of closers. Just because Lee Smith or John Franco have 400 saves, doesnt mean they were as good as, let alone better than, Goose Gossage. If you think Gossage is the 17th best closer because he's 17th in saves, well, you just weren't there. Two previously eligible relievers passed by the Hall who might have a conceivable claim over Gossage are the late Dan Quisenberry (1043 IP, 146 ERA+, 244 saves) and the underrated Kent Tekulve (1436 IP, 132 ERA+, 184 saves). I dont think I'd take either before Gossage (1809 IP, 126 ERA+), but these less heralded, "game over" stoppers were every bit as good as Lee Smith (1289 IP, 131 ERA+) or John Franco (1245 IP, 137 ERA+).
In one respect, Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven were opposites. Given their respective ERAs, Morris won more than he should have - Blyleven less - but they were two of the best pitchers who debuted in the 70's, a decade dramatically underrepresented in Cooperstown. Indeed, not one pure starter from the 70's has ever been inducted. The latest debut for any HOF starter was 1967 - Tom Seaver - and we can expect a new logjam of starters (Clemens, Maddux, et al) to attract HOF attention shortly, but for some reason, between 1968 and 1983, not one HOF starter emerged on the scene. That's fifteen years - nearly one sixth of a century - and too long to be explained simply by a natural ebb and flow of positional talent. The DH was introduced, the mound was lowered, and for whatever reason(s), the challenges facing all pitchers of the era were different than before.It seems past time we recognize a starter, somebody, from this era. If it's not Ron Guidry or Saberhagen or Vida Blue, then it ought to be Jack Morris and/or Bert Blyleven. Take your pick. If you fancy 68 career wins over .500, seven postseason victories including the 10 inning Game 7 WS shutout, then take Jack. If you're partial to 60 shutouts, 3700 strikeouts (5th all time) and a dozen seasons among the league's top ten in ERA+, then Bert's your man. Personally, I'd take Blyleven. A 118 ERA+, the same as Warren Spahn, with more innings than Roger Clemens or Greg Maddux? That Nolan Ryan can be inducted virtually unanimously and Blyleven receive such lukewarm support is a testament to the fact the Hall of Fame is about more than career statistics (which is fine) - and maybe to the fact that many stats based voters have little or no appreciation of more refined formulae that illuminate performance within the contexts of park and era (which is not fine).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
