Arguments have been levied for some time, in favor of moving Chris Young below the top third of manager Bob Melvin's batting order. First and foremost, critics say, Young's career .306 OBP, presents a counterproductive bottleneck just before (and among) the team's top hitters. Young also strikes out a great deal and notably struggles against right handed pitching (.232/.290/ .438), which is to say, most of the time.
While surfing
Bill James Online, I came upon a different split that opened my eyes:
Batting Performance By Quality of Opposing Pitcher - "quality" roughly defined in terms of pitchers' ERA. We would expect most hitters to fare better against lesser pitchers, and this is the case. But it seems
particularly true with Chris Young:
Pitchers Below 4.25 ERAAB........ H = BA
598...... 113=.
189Pitchers Above 4.25 ERAAB.......H = BA
596.... 177=.
297 The 4.25 ERA presents a useful practical division, insofar as the NL lg average ERA in 2008 was 4.30 -and 4.43 the previous year. So, Young hits just .189 (with OPS well below .600) against essentially the top half of major league pitchers. Not only staff aces and dominant closers - the top 45% or so of all pitchers.
Let's look at some other Diamondback hitters for context. Mark Reynolds set the All Time Seasonal Strikout record in 2008, and often looks overmatched against quality pitchers. Here's his 2007-2008 split:
Pitchers Below 4.25 ERA>>>.
216" " Above 4.25 ERA>>>.302
Similar to Young, but note that Reynolds first BA is still 25 points higher than CY and that
no one is clamoring for Mark to bat in the top half of the order. The fact he is often overmatched appears widely recognized, and accounted for, in his positioning low in the order.
Here's Stephen Drew's split:
Pitchers Below 4.25 ERA>>>.
249" " Above 4.25 ERA>>>.283
Much smaller difference than either Young and Reynolds.
And Conor Jackson, the team's most reliable hitter:
Below 4.25 ERA>>>> .
280Above 4.25 ERA>>>>.307
Chad Tracy, Juston Upton and Eric Byrnes all hit better than Chris Young against the under 4.25 ERA set. Young isnt resigned to hit .189 the rest of his life, but that stat represents 598 ABs, suggesting Chris
may be more of a 'cripple' hitter, terrorizing the bottom half of mistake-prone hurlers, while conversely overmatched - to an unusual degree - against the top half . The Houston native is trying to take the ball to right this spring, shortening up with two strikes; however CY has never hit higher than .277 after high school - not even in the low minors. Which raises the question whether, at 25, he can reasonably transform himself into an average (let alone "high") OBP player.
If not, perhaps Bob Melvin can utilize this information to enhance team production, most notably by replacing Young at the top of the lineup against stronger arms, with players (Upton, Byrnes, Tracy) who have historically fared better facing top competition.
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jb
