Ferdinand Fandungo

After endless waiting, nagging doubts and discouraging false alarms, finally.
Finally! Someone broke the tie in our "Rename Melvin Mora" poll. Thank you!
Your choice:

Ferdinand Fandungo.

My choice was Solomon Salmone. Mora just looks like a Solomon someoneto me, but cherished readers have spoken. From now on, or as long as we feel like it, we'll refer to our ancient third sacker as Solomon Salmone Ferdie Fandungo.

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In other news, Kevin Towers' mesmerizing balancing act has defied logic, levski and low expectations, catapulting to the divisional lead on the magical trajectory of eighteen wins in three weeks. What's not to like?

Well, the schedule's been about as strong as Xavier Nady's arm, and pitching's been as sustainable as Charlie Sheen in a monastery. Chuck Nagy's nurtured a gaudy five pen men sporting sub-2 ERAs. Their low BABIPs wont collectively stand and may only be mitigated by tightening up the rotation's rear, which appears underway with the relative stabilization of Joe Saunders and swapping out Galarraga and Enright for Collmentor and Duke.

Batsmen currently stand third in NL runs, ahead of Philly, Colorado and Milwaukee, and it's encouraging there's at least some probable individual regression ahead in opposite directions. Even with inevitable dips,it's harder to envision this group in their collective primes falling, say, below NL average, than challenging towards the circuit's runs scored lead.

But how good, really, is this team? Any doofus can discern it's better than it's been the past two years. They're not going to lose 95 games. But that doesnt tell us how good they are, only how bad they're not. Just over a third of the way home, Arizona sports the NLW's best run differential. So this isnt exactly 2007, either.

But the looming, latent worry is the nexus of pitching and schedule. As Diamondback fans, we're excited to be leading as late as early June, but that's just late to us, given our recent history. There are almost twice as many games left to play, over 900 innings to be pitched, by a group almost sure to erode and decline, perhaps significantly. Collmentor, Paterson and Hernandez are way over their heads. Kennedy, Vasquez and Demel will be very hard pressed to sustain results to date. The closer is good but fragile. Of the entire staff, perhaps only Hudson can reasonably be expected to improve on his April and May.

The Diamondbacks may appear to be a contending MLB outfit, but are probably closer to an average/slightly below average squad, riding a crest of premature promise. Early hints of a mundane NL West may or may not roll all the way to September's shore, but an unexpectedly favorable early schedule followed by a more representative one, and anticipated random variation should prove to be as inexorable as the tides.

Dbacks Land Rivera, Bullpen Woes Solved

Nine years after an electrifying World Series (pictured, left), Arizona once again stunned the baseball world, as the slumping, mid-market Diamondbacks paid cash for the most storied name in relief pitching history.

Rivera!

The thirteen year pro ball veteran arrives from the American League, by way of Puerto Rico, and currently sports a 0.53 ERA, along with a 2-0 record and four saves.

The right hander was not on most fans' radar, as he was thought to be too expensive for this ownership group to pursue, however the acquisition should alter the balance of power in the National League West.

Developing....

Is This Haren's Off Year?

I figured I'd ask, after Thursday's complete game victory. It only seems fair. Didnt want to jump the gun, just because he got knocked around by St Louis and 10 hit by the Cubs.

There's an opinion that his dominant, nine strikeout performance against the Astros signals he's back, but he still gave up a couple earned runs to a woeful lineup, so I'm not so sure. Neither is Lance Berkman:

"He was really good early. I didn't think he was great later in the game, but he competes. His repertoire was pretty good."

Not exactly the player code of effusive praise normally generated when you strike out nine and go the distance. It also confirms my less than singular suspicion that he kinda muddled through inferior competition.

He's 4-1, which masks a WHIP that's up from 2008-09, and even after the Houston triumph, his seasonal ERA is still above 4. This is notable,and potentially alarming, only for such a consistently spectacular first half pitcher.

While focus has understandably been on Brandon Webb's status and anticipated contributions from newcomers Jackson, Kennedy, Lopez, there's a tendency to almost forget about Haren. To kind of pencil him in for superlative April thru June hurlery. Of course, that level of excellence is difficult for anyone to sustain. It looks so effortless on TV, but it's physically exhausting work, difficult to replicate.

When people sum up our ballclub, it's great hitting, horrible bullpen and pretty good or "OK" starting pitching. But the starters really havent been good. One reason for the misconception is that expectations were relatively low for Rodrigo Lopez, Kris Benson and even Ian Kennedy. They've all exceeded those, but the fact is, collectively, they're not very good. And while it's easy to blame Ed Jackson for everything, the fact is Dan Haren hasnt pitched like an ace either.

Unlike some pitchers, Jackson for example, when Haren struggles it's especially worrisome. Not merely because the team relies on him to be so good, but because his mechanics and mentality are so solid. If he consistently gets the most of his ability, when he does (comparatively) struggle, one's left questioning why.

Let's hope he can get in his patented groove, against someone besides the Astros. If he cant, this season could head south in a hurry.

Shocking Stat of the Month

Entering the fourth week of action, Dan Haren sports the highest ERA of any Arizona Starter

Kris Benson 3.00

Ed Jackson 3.81

Ian Kennedy 4.43

Rodrigo Lopez 4.88

Dan Haren 5.19

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It's only three starts, but if you had asked a hundred Dback fans in March which starter would have the highest ERA at this juncture, one hundred would pick someone other than Dan. He's been a phenomenal first half hurler in the desert, and our rotation's rife with has beens and never weres.

Torre Terms Opener Nod 'Arbitrary'

Shooting "victim". Headhunter. Honorary admiral of a bona fide flotilla (see photo)?



Add "Opening Day Starter" to the dubious roles enacted by Dodger du jour Vicente Padilla. Manager/God Torre insists the honor doesnt signal Padilla is "better" than LA colleagues, but I imagine it's hard to be a Dodger fan and feel too good about this.

Statistically speaking, the opening game is no more important than any other, but the implied lack of confidence in Billingsley and Kuroda, as well as an apparently marketing-driven bump of Kershaw (to ensure he'll pitch the April 13th home opener), are notable.


Padilla's (98-85) hardly a punch drunk bum. He was even an All Star once, after he left the Dbacks in the Curt Schilling deal. But this is a notable choice for an organization with a rich tradition of pitchers, ranked second in NL ERA+ over the past couple of years.

Fare Well, Two Arms

Here's a list of cumulative pitcher values, published by Fangraphs, that may be of interest to Diamondback fans. The dollar values are a function of WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which you can learn a great deal about here.

The sort ranks baseball's 35 most valuable starters since and including the 2002 season. Value, as one might expect, is largely the product of the quantity and quality of a pitcher's innings, and even without a detailed understanding of WAR, one can assume that a list headlined by Halladay, Sabathia and Santana is probably on the right track.


The first thing I'd like to call attention to gloomy Arizona fans is that six of the 35 top pitchers have thrown for the Dbacks. Webb, Johnson, Schilling, Haren, Garland and Doug Davis. Including injury, they represent seventeen full year equivalents of some damn fine pitching. If my count is correct, only the Red Sox and Yankees share six starters on this list, and Atlanta has five. It's a testament to Jerry Colangelo's competitive zeal and spending (Johnson & Schilling), his farm system (Webb and, ultimately via trade, Haren)and Josh Byrnes' emphasis (Haren, RJ, Davis) and acumen (Garland) in acquiring quality workhorses on a tight budget.

Let's look at some individuals. You'll notice that four of the top five MLB starters each threw around 1700 innings. Santana relieved in 2002 and 2003 and consequently accumulated "only" 1500. They're all fabulous, durable pitchers - exuding heroic, manly character. Brandon Webb, valued sixth in dollars (10th by WAR), is way down at 1318.2 IP. That reflects 200+ innings missed in 2009, as well as the fact he didnt start his career until 2003. In other words, he's valued as the 6th-10th best pitcher here, on the basis of six healthy seasons, while the 1700 inning guys "enjoyed" or "earned" close to eight, and Santana six and a half or seven.

Skip down to #13, Dan Haren. He's actually 22nd, when sorted by WAR, but like Brandon leapfrogs some guys in money value due to inflation and his relatively later success. Nevertheless, he's earned these rather lofty rankings on the basis of 1206 IP, or the quivalent of just five and a half full seasons. In short, his established seasonal values exceed those of stalwarts like Derek Lowe and John Lackey, and even franchise stars higher up the list, like Roy Oswalt and Javier Vazquez. If Haren continues his current quantity and quality of innings, he could pass everyone on this list, save for Halladay. Not bad for someone initially projected as a team's #2 starter.


You know about Johnson and Schilling. Garland was worth 6.1M to the Dbacks, after his "hitting" is subtracted out. The Dbacks paid him $6.25M and acquired rights to Tony Abreu, so that's a win on our balance sheet, and possibly on the field as well. Doug Davis cost Josh Byrnes roughly $23M for three years valued at about $16M. Not really a win, but Doug was a key cog in 2007 and from an accounting perspective one could certainly do worse.

All said, it's an impressive list, for any franchise. Edwin Jackson joins Webb and Haren in April and looks to be another in a long line of durable, valuable rotational pickups. Much has been speculated about Webb's physical status, and understandably so. We suspect Arizona's two arms will fare well, and aim to address any angst regarding Webb shortly.