Young Man River

This Father's Day may be an apt historical marker for Phoenix ballfans to finally acknowledge that Justin Upton's our daddy. The four year, hyped wait appears just about over for our oft-maligned superstar-in-training.

It's not just the result that he's smashing .434 over the past twenty games, thrusting the not quite 24 year old among seasonal NL leaders.  It's the visibly obvious, long wished for process leading up to the result that's so exciting.

It's the swing, Stupid.

Excuse me. "Daddy."

He's shortened his swing, especially with two strikes, reaping ridiculous results. Pundits claim he is quicker to the ball, and he seems to be using that extra "time" to both select and square up better pitches to hit. Ironically, "being quicker and shorter" means he's pulling the ball less than ever. Everything's left center/right center, except for an occasional sharp grounder in the shortstop hole.

He's spoiling tough two strike pitches, that used to march him back to the dugout.   It seemed as if Justin worked a lot of full counts, but then often came up empty with big overanxious swings. He's now earning more pitches, by fighting off foul tips and eventually "settling" for line drives and singles.

He's shortened up on the back end too. His follow through was notable for tremendous upper bod twist and torque. Now, it almost looks like a relaxed, more compact check swing, dare I speak it - "lazy" - like he's just tapping the ball.  It visually reminds me of the way Luis Gonzalez tapped his way to 57 home runs in 2001.

Justin is hitting just about everything on the button, which further incents pitchers to spot with care - and get behind. He is no longer one of the guys in this lineup. He has emerged as The Man, the daily center of attention in the box, who rival managers and pitchers wake up with on their minds and with sweat on their brow.

This metamorphosis doesnt just get fools off his back and bolster clubhouse morale.  The transformation from one of too many big swinging 'sluggers' to a line drive-spitting OBP machine is precisely and objectively what this Kegger batting order Kraves. Josh Byrnes' nuclear Kore has more untimely power surges than APS. It has always lacked a reliable, daily source of direct current and contact, more like the current of a river. Like SRP.  A river that stays within its banks and both steadies and propels this powerful team.

The Diamondacks arent quite as solid as they look and may be slowly dissolving as we speak. Justin Upton is stemming that tide. The fellas are finally floating on his muscular back, and we'll see how long he can keep them afloat.  He is not the Father of Waters, not yet, but has grown into a river and a man.

Young Man River. If this team sinks, it wont be his fault.

** Happy Fathers' Day

*** Justin Upton Poll >>>> top right

Room For Two

After navigating the toughest month of opponents in franchise history, skipper AJ Hinch has predictably been dismissed. Less predictably, he took the General Manager with him. Like Bob Melvin's ouster a year prior, the timing of the firings, relative to the seasonal schedule, leave little doubt as to the short term impetus or curious integrity of the changes.

If you recall, Melvin was axed immediately after surviving a 29 game stretch against almost exclusively .500 or better teams, ushering in Hinch to face the then hapless Nats and Reds at home - and one of the easiest extended stretches in recent memory. Today, Hinch endured a brutal interleague schedule to make way for Kirk Gibson, who will be greeted by 17 of 20 at home against lesser foes. After that, the schedule trends even easier, if that's possible. Sound familiar?

The other parallel involves tangential effects. Melvin's dismissal didnt stir much outrage, at least outside the clubhouse, but did lead directly to the departure of Bryan Price. Today, most everyone is relieved to see Hinch exit, but the absence of Josh Byrnes may prove more strategically problematic.

Byrnes, it is rumored, is the early odds on hero in all this, standing by his man, a la Tammy Wynette. Just kidding. I think it's actually damn dignified and a pretty rare thing to do. To punt a high profile baseball job, because you really believe in someone you think is getting a raw deal.

Just ask Bryan Price.

Longer term, jettisoning AJ Hinch is a good thing, although not as good as never inserting him in the dugout in the first place. The clubhouse vibe, which he was hired to improve, never did, and in fact badly deteriorated. Reportedly, the relationship between Byrnes and Hall had also grown strained. That's what happens when you put a marketing careerist ostensibly in charge of a substantive baseball mind competing under tight fiscal pressures.

The marketing careerist won and I'm not sure that's a good thing for the franchise.

What easily gets lost in all this shifting, is that Melvin and Hinch both had their clubs objectively playing better just before they were dropped. That doesnt mean AJ should've ever been hired, or that Melvin was a great manager. But both teams had settled down, with clearer skies ahead. That contextual performance tends to fall by the wayside, however, when what matters most to the leaders of an organization is manipulating fans and perception. When what's more important than fielding a good team is telling you how good it is. When what trumps winning is manipulating personnel so you can take credit for anticipated bumps a softer schedule affords.

I fear that's what this organization has largely become. It's defining character seems to be perception, rather than substance, driven. Hinch and Byrnes were party to that, at times, and received criticism here. So, I harbor mixed feelings about both of them. But in the end, seeing how their respective if not always respectable tenures played out to the bitter end, it's hard to escape my impression that each young man, in his own way, was probably a little too good for the room.

Willis, Stottlemyre To Swap Roles

Struggling starter Dontrelle Willis will switch roles and responsibilities with embattled pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr, the Diamondbacks announced Tuesday.

According to GM Josh Byrnes, the reassignments aim to optimize organizational resources in a challenged market, and are effective the moment the 46 year old Stottlemyre finds a glove to his liking.

We tried to get Dontrelle to aim the ball between on-deck circles, with mixed results. Mel doesnt throw very hard at his age, or quite as hard as his dad in Missouri, but I think our remaining fans will be pleasantly surprised with his command.

Willis, who has no formal coaching experience, enthusiastically supports the initiative and aims to succeed in his unfamiliar post.

"The ball just wouldnt stay down for me, but I'm down with this. Whatever. Anything that helps the club, you know? That's what I'm about."

Byrnes further defended what, flat on its face, appears to be an unorthodox move:

People may question, "Arent you changing the nature of the job a little bit?" Yeah, we'll do that.

Just because Dontrelle cant throw a strike, doesnt mean he cant inspire others to do so. We noticed how vocal he was with Edwin during the no hitter, and thought it was strange Edwin had never pitched anywhere near that well for Stott.

So, we wanted to capitalize on Dontrelle's unique mentoring skills. We feel we've done that.

General Partner Ken Kendrick chastised skeptical media members:

Some "experts" liken this to rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, but we think that's irresponsible. Firstly, the Titanic was an ungainly - and quite ostentatious - vessel, with lots of lifeboats, so it's hardly analogous to our efforts here.

I didnt get into this business to fail, or sink as it were. It's been five years now, and I dont honestly recall why I got involved exactly, but sinking twelve thousand feet straight to the bottom of the ocean wasnt in my wildest dreams.

At heart, I'm a modest man, operating a modest business, realizing modest returns, but despite what others may think, I do have wild dreams from time to time, when I feel it's appropriate. That's the key. I carefully assess whether or not it's appropriate, under the particular circumstances.

Crazy Talk

Since the Diamondbacks have "run away from the competition" the last couple of Mays, like crazed thieves in the night, we sanely gravitate towards topics painfully unrelated to a pennant. Like bobbleheads, hot dog prices and AJ Hinch. But as we near the three month diagnostic point of this latest asylum visit, I thought we'd step outside the cell for a bit to stroll around the grounds.

Fat John Broxton blew just his second save - a three out, four run whopper - dropping the Dodgers to 40-35. According to ESPN's RPI, even after a set with the Yankees, LA's played an average schedule to date, and their expected record (pythag RS/RA) is just 38-37. Dont let the bright lights fool you. This is an average team, consistent with "manifold doubts" expressed here prior to Opening Day.

By contrast, the Padres have shocked. They havent shocked me as much as they've shocked most honest observers, because I've always understood they're structurally underrated. But to say I'm merely "surprised" they're four games up on the field, almost halfway in, doesnt do them justice. I'm somewhere between shocked and very surprised.

Here's today's standings:

San Diego 45-30

San Fran 40-34....4.5 back

Los Angeles 40-35...5 back

Colorado 39-36...6 back

Arizona 30-46...15.5 back


...and today's "expected" standings, per RS/RA(pythag):

San Diego 45-30

San Fran 42-32

Colorado 41-34

Los Angeles 38-37

Arizona 31-45


Essentially, the Rockies and Dodgers do a little flip, but everyone else is where they "belong". Despite a disappointing half, Colorado, the most popular preseason favorite, are in fine position to make a run. The Giants are competitive.

Which leaves "the asylum". In 2009, the Dodgers raced away from the entire field and we kinda defined the Dbacks' season, at least early on, in terms of "being behind the Dodgers". It was hard to stomach and took center stage - the way we fell eight back so quickly under Melvin, and eventually 25 back under Hinch. But what got lost or discounted in that perspective was how, for the first time under AJ, we fell so far behind everyone else.

That didnt happen under Melvin and Bryan Price. They finished first in 2007, second in 2008 (a few games back of LA), and they were right with everyone else (except LA) when Bob got fired. That shifted seismically, after Josh, AJ and Mel Stottlemyre Jr shook things up.

To be fair, people often cite Brandon Webb. There's no doubt his absence underlays part of the post-Melvin decline, but I think it's neatly counterbalanced by factors in the other direction. Melvin didnt have Dan Haren in 2007. We played very well then, with Doug Davis and Livan as 2nd and third starters most of that year. The best players on that whole team were Orlando Hudson and Eric Byrnes.

Melvin was also never furnished with a real first baseman, like Adam Laroche. More important than any of that, he was forced to field a talented but largely underaged core (Drew, Upton, CY, Reynolds, Scherzer and occasionally Montero) which everyone expected to naturally improve with age and experience, and which for the most part, has. In summary, Webb's absence hurts alot, but when I hear smart men like valuearb, over at dbbp.org, lay out cases for Melvin's inherited advantages over Hinch, it makes one wonder how often they go out for lunch.

We need to define this more precipitous, post-Melvin competitive failure, by its appropriate terms. Not in terms of Los Angeles, but by how badly we've fallen behind our budgetary and market brethren, loosely speaking. It would be different, if we were battling those guys and the McCourts got it together and simply stomped on the field. Then we could more honorably bitch about Colangelo's deferred salaries and the Byrnes extension.

But we're not even competitive. Not in a seasonal sense, for two seasons now. So that other stuff shouldnt even be in the conversation. The $37M Padres are not merely competing with us. They are systematically kicking our ass, with the likes of David Eckstein, Jon Garland and a bunch of kids nobody's ever heard of. Let's stop pretending that's a Brandon Webb problem. Or a market problem. Or random variation.

There was nothing random about what happened on May 8, 2009, when, relative to the rest of the division, the Diamondbacks stopped being a competitive concern. All the rest is crazy talk.

The Times, They Are A Fakin'

Josh Byrnes, last week in The NY Times:

In a market like ours, we have to be disciplined with managing our payroll...

Market not only implies disadvantage, but an external, static handicap beyond franchise control. To be fair, he's talking to a New York reporter, covering the biggest, most lucrative market in the sport, but for an articulate spokesman like Byrnes, there probably are more accurate nouns than "market" at his disposal.

ESPN.com's Rob Neyer picked up on this. Here's his response to that portion of the Byrnes interview:

I'm not exactly sure what Byrnes means when he references "a market like ours" as if that were a bad thing. Last year the Phoenix metropolitan area was the 12th most populous in the United States, and growing incredibly quickly (sure it's a desert, but land is cheap and people are incredibly short-sighted); within a year or two, the region will break into the top 10.

Maybe the corporate support isn't there and maybe retirees won't pay top dollar for tickets and the people are definitely not concentrated within 20 minutes of the ballpark. But the Diamondbacks do not have a population problem.

Neyer's not exactly right either. There's conflicting evidence as to whether Phoenix is growing at all right now. It's certainly not growing incredibly quickly, like it has for a long time. But it's a substantial, spread out metro. The spread out challenge has been mitigated by improved freeways and signature light rail.

Corporate support has dwindled due to the economy and waning baseball utility. The Diamondbacks predictably responded by going where the money is, much like bank robber Willie Sutton, and heavily tied their enterprise to casino interests. As far as paying "top dollar" for tickets, the expensive box seats at Chase Field dont drive the vacancy issue. It's the mid to low range seats that Phoenicians feel are too high.

So, if selling your most expensive seats arent a real problem, and eager casinos are bankrolling your new stadium and half of what's in the old one, is it really "the market" disciplining your payroll? Relative to New York? Yes. Relative to most other MLB cities? Probably not. If fans arent buying enough tickets, can it really be tied to "market" if Colangelo sold substantially more tickets - to a younger, smaller metropolis with inferior public transport?

What's disciplining payroll isnt "market" nearly so much as "budget", which implies similar disadvantage, but not nearly the same determinism. A budget is a dynamic function of external and internal considerations. Ownership discretion and input are clearly implied, as are financial pressures stemming from a variety of internal actions, like bad contracts and fielding barely competitive teams.



The thrust of organizational advocacy is to make your boss look good. If you cant make him look good, like on the field, then you at least try to make him sound good in the papers. That's what this is about. Subtlely deflecting responsibility from Josh's bosses, and frankly, from himself.

As Neyer indicated, the Diamondbacks dont suffer from particularly unusual external challenges. It's an internal credibility issue that plagues them, that by dancing around with The New York Times, is becoming more "external" every day.

Front Office 'Movement'

Per Sports Illustrated, Josh Byrnes "is said to be fighting hard for his hand-picked Hinch", presumably from the corporate bowels of Chase Field. At least someone in this front office is pushing, hard, for something. Sounds like a movement to get behind.

Thoughts Before 'The Apocalypse'

After a round of spectacular losses to sadly soft foes, reminiscent of last year, fans are predicatbly hissing venom at their April Diamondbacks. I've joined in on occasion, picked my spots, but as one who's been tarred a hater in some circles, I want to formally disassociate myself (and this blog) from the kneejerk fatalism that can overwhelm azcentral.com

It seems like everybody there, or almost everybody, thinks the season is more or less doomed. That we have no chance against the Cardinals or Phillies. I dont think either is true. Not because I respect the Diamondbacks organization, particularly, but because I have too much respect for baseball. I've seen popular 'knowledge' get thrown out on its ear too many times, once the games are played. Just when you think you have the game figured out, it has a way of flaunting convention, and occasionally, consensus. I dont mean the enterprise of MLB. That's predictable as hell. I mean the game, where powerful teams only win sixty percent of the time.

Early on, the Dbacks are sending mixed signals. The good news is the bullpen's been unsustainably bad, and a pen can be leveraged during the season in ways one's rotation or offense typically cannot. The bad bullpen news is the early failures have been disturbingly broad based. It's not like one guy hasnt found his arm slot. Similar to stretches last year, it seems like there are games - indeed entire series - where no one can record three outs in less than twenty minutes - or with less than a run or two. It'll improve, but uncharacteristic of Diamondbacks baseball, they're getting behind and walking batters.

My early take on the rotation is that Josh Byrnes has cobbled together a group who know how to pitch for cheap. Jackson has good stuff. Kennedy changes speeds and locates well. I think Lopez may struggle against stronger lineups, but is smart and durable enough to eke out some wins with offensive support. There really is no fifth guy. Benson, I guess. It's certainly not a rotation that scares by reputation, but this offense is so superior to recent Arizona predecessors that the no name rotation's gonna win games.

The more daunting concern is durability. Last year, Davis and Garland didnt scare anybody either, but threw 371 innings before the latter was traded. Add Scherzer and that's alot of competitive innings to replace. I generally defer to Byrnes on this subject, because his acquired starters have had a terrific knack for exceeding expectations. The big fear is your 200 inning studs (Haren and Jackson) are really the only bankable guys to throw even one hundred innings - at least based on recent high level history. That's scary, but may also be worst case, given Byrnes' history. If Webb returns in a month starting with J, this might morph into a competitive rotation, especially with this offense.

It's important to understand that the schedule is tough right now. Not just the Cards and Phils, but it's very challenging through the All Star break, including interleague play. Then it gets relatively soft in August and September. In other words, fans shouldnt freak out if the Dbacks spin their wheels coming out of the gate. These are times to stay close and hope NL West rivals beat up on one another and dont separate too much, because if the Dbacks are hanging around at the end of July (still a significant "if"), I'd call them odds on favorite to take the division.

Why?

• Because the schedule really softens up after July.

• The club lost two critical left handed hitters this week - LaRoche and Montero - and is still hitting well. As I said earlier, this year's offense is primed to take off - it may just take longer due to the injuries (which as of today include Conor Jackson).

• Defensively, the club looks better ( except for two supernaturally bad throws from Stephen Drew and Tony Abreu). I'm impressed with Mark Reynolds. Some plays, I've caught myself thinking, "That looks like Matt Williams". He'll never have Matty's hands, but looks like an entirely different Reynolds. There's a methodical calmness to his dives and throws now. Like he knows how much time he has and exactly what he's doing. He's slowed it down. Reynolds worked with Williams this spring, and it shows. Upton has also clearly put in some work. Fans are harping over a throw he recently airmailed, but he's not just 'athletic' this year. His footwork's improved, he's concentrating on grounders better and doing a great job in the right field corner.

• The bullpen cant possibly be this bad for the whole season. The rotation's somewhat fragile, but given GM Byrnes' demonstrated acumen in this area, probably a little better than most people think. And Brandon Webb is still out there. Lurking.

Everything Counts

Spring ball's never been about the score, but as St Patrick's Day approaches, we note the Dbacks have won a single nine inning exhibition. It's worth mentioning, since manager trainee Hinch suddenly declared everything counts a few weeks back - in an apparent effort to inspire associates, sound leaderish and coyly discount his own farcical dugout debut.

By declaring "everything counts" ten months into the job, can we be forgiven for assuming that less than everything counted before then? Indeed, after Cap'n AJ's "mutineers" brooded and bungled away most of last summer, one might assume nothing counted, beyond making the bosses look bad.

Our flailing franchise went to considerable lengths, tangibly and rhetorically, to distance itself from 2009, ditching three starters - Davis, Scherzer & Garland (late last season) - for Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. They acquired Bob Howry, Aaron Heilman and half a new infield (Kelly Johnson, Adam Laroche). Beyond the overarching hypocrisy of dumping Bob Melvin for resisting an unpracticed "build from within" philosophy, the individual moves have a certain integrity.

The team will hit, by Diamondback standards. Not because the players, aside from Upton, are all that great, but because after five years, Ken Kendrick finally "splurged" on a major league first baseman. That, and Josh Byrnes has artfully aggregated an entire starting eight on the cusps of projected individual primes. Well, Upton's too young and LaRoche ( he of three consecutive 122 ops+ campaigns) is thirty, but it's an impressive mix of demonstrably (if sporadically) accomplished hitters, who are twenty six, twenty seven and twenty eight years old.

These guys' careers might not match the career outputs of Dodger or Rockie counterparts, but baseball is contested in distinct seasons, not careers, and LA tentatively starts three men 35 or older. Furcal is 32. Prudence dictates some declines there. Colorado's not so ancient, but Helton is 36 and Hawpe and Barmes will be 31 by June. The Dodgers and Rockies boast more career talent, but Arizona's positional collection is uniquely poised to peak offensively in 2010.

The countervailing dirt, aside from nagging rotational, defensive and managerial concerns, is that B Webb's not progressing as hoped or expected. Piecoro ominously characterized Brandon's mph as "way down", even after eight bullpen sessions, which at the very least translates to missed starts in April. That wont snuff out Arizona's chances in a weak and declining division, but without a minimum of 100 or so quality innings from Webb, the Diamondbacks as currently constructed should yield too many runs to be a formidable squad.

Everything counts.

Smile Arizona! You've Got Talent!!

Josh Byrnes is well spoken, sometimes too much so for his own good, but the GM's recent remarks about Chris Young seem uncharacteristically facile - even borderline disturbing. However there's no more welcoming place to disseminate Dback dreck than azsnakepit.com, so Josh scores points for at least serving his audience.

Here's 'Pit's bit on Young - transcribed by a softball pitcher clearly thrilled to bask in Byrnes' aura. I've bolded three of JB's themes for review.

Snakepit: Are you confident that Chris Young is going to be able to turn his offensive woes around?

JB: Yeah, he finished '09 strong, he has a great minor-league track record, he has shown it in flashes in the big leagues, he's still hitting lefties at a very high level. How he finished last year was very encouraging. He accepted the Triple-A time very well, played well, played with a smile on his face and then came up and had a very good September. He's worked very hard this off-season, his commitment to excelling has never been an issue. He works very hard and wants to be a very, very good player.

He has a similar skill-set to Mike Cameron or Franklin Gutierrez and is about where they are at the same age, when they both started taking a step forward. The holes in his offensive game have been apparent. I think he can improve upon them, and when the whole package is put together- the on-base, the power, the defense, impacting the game on the bases, the durability - he is a very good player. But he needs to have not so many at-bats that just aren't competitive, which was a large part of the '09 season.

The first bolded part is rapid fire cherrypicking, sure to puff out the chests of half baked fanboys. What about everything else sandwiched between halcyon minor league triumphs and a 135 PA September blip? Like 1500 measly major league ABs, establishing Young as a really lousy hitter? Or his horrendous performance against MLB predominant righthanders - ahead of only hapless Willy Taveras, among all outfielders. Crowing that CY hits lefties at a "very high level", is akin to crooning that Susan Boyle has bewitching elbows. As Mark Reynolds, or any reasonably holistic thinker, might observe, "So what."

The second angle, about CY's longstanding committment to excellence, can be taken two ways. Byrnes is suggesting (or hoping) Young will eventually break through because of all that hard work, but shouldnt such talent and work ethic already have delivered better results? Maybe something over 90 ops+ somewhere within those numbing 1900 plate appearances? Chris "Not So" Young will be 27 in September, and our GM is all but conceding the effort and attitude cant significantly improve.

Byrnes' third leg, comping Young with Cameron, is more carnival hyperbole than conviction at this point - assuming the GM's alleged familiarity with basic player evaluation. It certainly made sense a couple years ago - to sensible people, anyway - comparing rangy, low ave/higher ISO CFers, after Young's intriguing rookie campaign. But Cameron established a 109 ops+ season (446 PAs) and a 105 ops+ season(636 PAs) by the time he was Chris Young's current age - CY hasnt approached a single season like that. Both guys endured "lost years" at 25; if we exclude those debacles - on grounds they're not real representative of either player - Cameron's ops+ shoots to 103 (thru age 26). Young's bumps up to 88 - a significant difference over 1000-1400 PAs.

So, when Josh offers that Chris is about where Cameron was at this age, and that this was also the age Cameron took a noticeable step forward, he's dead wrong on both counts. Cameron figured out major league pitching at 24, after a couple hundred at bats, got injured at 25, then re-established his earlier 100-110 ops+ level for a dozen years! The idea he catapulted onto the scene at Chris Young's current age, or by implication after nearly 1700 at bats, is crafted fantasy.

This isnt to insist Young cant improve some, or that he's resigned to submediocrity the rest of his days. Maybe he'll pop over 100 once or twice, which would be great. The odds are he wont accomplish that more than once, however, and he certainly isnt going to do it for a dozen seasons, or anything close to that. Not without artificial enhancement or pitchers tossing underhand.

Franklin Gutierrez is a better batting comp, but the transplendent gloveman became a league average hitter at 24 - just like Cammy - and sports a 97 ops+ since. Despite more extensive MLB playing time prior to age 24, Young's ops+ is only 86 since - and his component obp is lower, widening true production gaps beyond straight OPS+.

More appropriate comps for Young might include gold glover Mickey Stanley, Jim Gosger or Charlie Moore. Stanley and Moore had decent careers and actually improved in their late 20's, so it can happen, especially since CY has set his offensive bar so low. It's just hard to justify everyday status for an outfielder, even a fleet, above average defender, when his career RHP split (.705) translates to sub 80 ops+ versus roughly two-thirds of all pitchers. Hitting .859 against a minority of lefties is nice, but in a generally favorable hitting environment, probably insufficient to play every day.

How cosmically significant was Young's September? He's flashed meteoric streaks like this before, invariably eclipsed by astronomical epochs of suck. At some point, in an unforgiving baseball universe, that defines a less than stellar hitter. Between May 28-July 21 for example, he hit .847 over 147 PAs, as Daron Sutton breathily touted Jack Howell for unlocking Young's greatness. Then Chris hit .074 over a dozen games and got sent down.

Is there something more lasting about the tiny September sample that will carryover? Something more productive than 'a smile' on Chris's face? I dont know. Derrick Hall's been smiling for years. Cant win much or turn a profit, supposedly. Make of it what you will.

Up & Adam

With his 142 strikeouts, below average glove and attention deficit label, Adam LaRoche should melt effortlessly into a dugout enabled by psychology major Andy Hinch, perhaps the most effete leader of men since Capt Jack Sparrow.

No, seriously. Things are looking up. Adam's a hopeful acquisition and dependable wheel for this peloton of positional talent pedaling and backpedaling into their primes. The eldest son of eephus deity, Dave LaRoche, smacks righties, comfortably projects to .270 and 25 homers, and has steadily improved his walk rate to 10-11% - about the same as Reynolds and Upton. That represents a monumental upgrade over wannabes Josh has previously trotted out at first, and embeds pathologically well rested Conor Jackson in left.

For the first time in years, it's actually fun to play with the batting lineups in one's head, and at least fantasize of a balanced and adequate offense.

From an organizational standpoint, any glee is tempered by the fact I (and many others) have been chirping for three or four years now, that this front office always had the financial capacity, and desperate necessity, to acquire a slightly below average major league first baseman.

This move seems evidence of both, unless they recoup a big chunk of dough by trading Eric Byrnes or Chris Snyder, which seems unlikely. Byrnes may be released any day now, while Snyder's probably a bit too expensive to trade.

Among Dback faithful (we few, we miserable few...), euphoria generated by this overdue harvest of relatively low hanging fruit serves to illustrate just how far fan expectations had fallen. After weeks, make that years, of criminally neglecting first base, and peddling dour, unsubstantiated financials for Nick Piecoro to transcribe, the brass almost seem like heroic philanthropists now, prying open the checkbook to secure a slightly below average starter.

It's a good move, and it's about time.

Fare Well, Two Arms

Here's a list of cumulative pitcher values, published by Fangraphs, that may be of interest to Diamondback fans. The dollar values are a function of WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which you can learn a great deal about here.

The sort ranks baseball's 35 most valuable starters since and including the 2002 season. Value, as one might expect, is largely the product of the quantity and quality of a pitcher's innings, and even without a detailed understanding of WAR, one can assume that a list headlined by Halladay, Sabathia and Santana is probably on the right track.


The first thing I'd like to call attention to gloomy Arizona fans is that six of the 35 top pitchers have thrown for the Dbacks. Webb, Johnson, Schilling, Haren, Garland and Doug Davis. Including injury, they represent seventeen full year equivalents of some damn fine pitching. If my count is correct, only the Red Sox and Yankees share six starters on this list, and Atlanta has five. It's a testament to Jerry Colangelo's competitive zeal and spending (Johnson & Schilling), his farm system (Webb and, ultimately via trade, Haren)and Josh Byrnes' emphasis (Haren, RJ, Davis) and acumen (Garland) in acquiring quality workhorses on a tight budget.

Let's look at some individuals. You'll notice that four of the top five MLB starters each threw around 1700 innings. Santana relieved in 2002 and 2003 and consequently accumulated "only" 1500. They're all fabulous, durable pitchers - exuding heroic, manly character. Brandon Webb, valued sixth in dollars (10th by WAR), is way down at 1318.2 IP. That reflects 200+ innings missed in 2009, as well as the fact he didnt start his career until 2003. In other words, he's valued as the 6th-10th best pitcher here, on the basis of six healthy seasons, while the 1700 inning guys "enjoyed" or "earned" close to eight, and Santana six and a half or seven.

Skip down to #13, Dan Haren. He's actually 22nd, when sorted by WAR, but like Brandon leapfrogs some guys in money value due to inflation and his relatively later success. Nevertheless, he's earned these rather lofty rankings on the basis of 1206 IP, or the quivalent of just five and a half full seasons. In short, his established seasonal values exceed those of stalwarts like Derek Lowe and John Lackey, and even franchise stars higher up the list, like Roy Oswalt and Javier Vazquez. If Haren continues his current quantity and quality of innings, he could pass everyone on this list, save for Halladay. Not bad for someone initially projected as a team's #2 starter.


You know about Johnson and Schilling. Garland was worth 6.1M to the Dbacks, after his "hitting" is subtracted out. The Dbacks paid him $6.25M and acquired rights to Tony Abreu, so that's a win on our balance sheet, and possibly on the field as well. Doug Davis cost Josh Byrnes roughly $23M for three years valued at about $16M. Not really a win, but Doug was a key cog in 2007 and from an accounting perspective one could certainly do worse.

All said, it's an impressive list, for any franchise. Edwin Jackson joins Webb and Haren in April and looks to be another in a long line of durable, valuable rotational pickups. Much has been speculated about Webb's physical status, and understandably so. We suspect Arizona's two arms will fare well, and aim to address any angst regarding Webb shortly.

Fair

Our beloved Dback'les have won just four sets all year against teams currently over .500 - in an excruciating 21 tries. Despite managing less than a third as many games as his determined understudy - and getting fired for his trouble - skipper non grata Melvin quietly put two (or half) of those series wins in the books:





April 20-22 v Colorado (2w, 1L) - Bob Melvin


......... 27-29 v Chi Cubs (2w, 1L) - Bob Melvin


May 19-21 @ Florida (3w, 1L) - AJ Hinch

June - -----------

July 3-5 @ Colorado (2w, 1L) - AJ Hinch

August - --------------


If Hinch "manages" to Beat LA this weekend, it would mark his third series win in fourteen tries, versus clubs with winning records. Recent front office expectations suggest that rate of success entitles Mr Hinch to something beyond his curious and abruptly bestowed title.

Pardon the objectivity, but I was thinking a pink slip. Of course, that'll never happen in the land of SedonaRed. A land where all is fair, except the way people are treated.

Hinch's Dbacks Finally Beat Lousy Teams

After getting pummeled by the Reds and Nationals in his first week on the job, then plummeting 18 games below .500 versus a curiously soft schedule, AJ Hinch's burgeoning superstars are finally beating up on bad teams.

Not that there's anything wrong with that. The National League is full of weak sisters, especially this time of year, but there's always an outside chance of losing to them. (Well, unless you're Bob Melvin, who "curiously" battled twenty seven .500 or better clubs in his 29 alloted games. Bob's pair of "gimmies", by the way, were Peavy and Young @ Petco.)

After Melvin struggled against the NL's best with a rash of critical injuries (Webb, Jackson, Drew), Hinch treaded water versus the league's dregs, just as Drew returned from the DL and a diseased CoJack was mercifully replaced by the NL's Rookie of the Month. Yet the Stanford psychology major's abject May-June failure throttled community expectations so low that the possibility of Oklahoma's golden boy completely drenching his diaper and losing 100 (with a roster projected by most to lose in the seventies) seemed uncomfortably plausible.

Fast forward a couple months, when the win-thirsty Dbacks finally drank 12 of 14 milkshakes from the talent-hemorrhaging Pirates, exhibition Padres and dysfunctional Mets, prompting at least one notorious org enabler to boast this is "another nail in the coffin of those who sought to bury AJ Hinch. Hooray for organizational advocacy".

Some sought to bury Hinch, implying the team could never win with a Stanford newbie, but from the beginning, Diamondhacks insisted the 2009 roster not only could win with Hinch (or Melvin), but would win this year - like Josh and his starstruck buddy(pictured, left), we're just surprised it took this long. AJ got up to speed in a couple months, which comes as little surprise for a competent professional. He's smart and experience helps.

I dont come to bury Hinch, neither do I come to praise him. These Diamondbacks are still nine games below .500, despite extraordinary contributions from Dan Haren and Mark Reynolds, and surprising support from Garland, Davis, Montero, Upton and others. This little, late-season roll is hardly a triumph of organizational advocacy, although it does confirm the sqeaky voiced skipper eventually aired out his diaper.

Rather, it's an indictment of Josh Byrnes' aggrandizing midseason leadership overhaul that rattled the clubhouse and led to a month and a half of the sloppiest, ill-managed local baseball since 2004. AJ Hinch was embarrassed nightly, but to his credit, never buried. The Diamondbacks season was, however - interred on the machiavellian contrivance of "organizational advocacy". Three months into the transitional Crash and Byrnes, it turns out Prince Josh and Andrew Jay Advocate wont lose a hundred games, and should finish within ten or fifteen games of most preseason expectations.

As only an organizational advocate could put it, "Hooray!"

Executive Weak

Disenchanted Diamondback fans (are there any other kind?) may look forward to a pair of hot, airy events this weekend. The hapless, cost-shedding Pirates are flying into sizzling Sky Harbor. And the hapless, fan-shedding Dbacks are launching "Executive Week" on FSN.

No, seriously. You cant make this stuff up. Under the guise of being responsive, even useful, to fans, Derrick Hall and selected spokesmen will commandeer literally hours of postgame air time to sell a disbelieving public on just how marvelous the organization is, from top to bottom. Wait, how silly of me. There is no bottom! It's one great big, continuous Circle of Success. I almost spoke out of turn.

It's hard to tell which is the more inexorable force. The Pirates shedding payroll every summer, or the Dbacks' shedding of fans with an increasingly tone deaf penchant for self-promotion. At least FAA regulations preclude the Bucs from jettisoning pricy veterans while their plane is in transit. The FCC provides no such temporary relief to Arizona fans, yearning for something approaching a normal baseball telecast - or a straightforward front office.

Here's what Hall will probably broadcast (and parenthetically, what he will not):

We've had some injuries (front office decisions arent to blame for the poor record)

We've lost some close games (and we've won close games. The overall record speaks for itself)

We're playing better than before ( a Little League team could play better than we were before)

Dan Haren can win the Cy Young (unlikely, but I'll wake you up every fifth day, just in case)

Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton have emerged (and we still stink)

We have the lowest prices in baseball (except for the Pirates and some other teams)

Fireworks every Friday night ( if it's not the least bit windy, which hardly ever happens on July evenings in Phoenix)

The All Star game is coming ( eventually, along with heat-related medical emergencies)

We're building the best spring training park ever (down the street from our benefactor's 240,000 sq ft casino).

We're doing it for the best fans in baseball ( the ones I recently criticized for disloyalty and not understanding the game).

Another self serving public relations blitz to distract from the unprofessional mess that is this season. Another crafted condescension by entrenched execs to massage their own unsatisfactory performance. Another day in Paradise Valley, Sedona Red style.

Half Empty

Lest anyone confuse a heartening 7 of 9 roll before the break with respectability, Ken Kendrick's Dream Team has publicly abandoned playoff aspirations in July - in favor of aiming for .500 and stockpiling pieces for next year.

After a gelatinous five year rebuild, what's left to say in regards to an organization crowing in April about challenging the Dodgers, but which only last week, flipflopped out of the NL West cellar with the competitively estranged Padres?

You can say Brandon Webb's hurt. That's fair. And Conor Jackson. One can also say injuries are part of the game, and limit the best laid plans of every organization to some degree.

You can say the Diamondbacks performed three games under pythag in the first half, hinting they've been a bit unlucky. One can also say they've played fifty of their first 89 at home - more than any MLB squad.

You can say Chad Tracy, Stephen Drew and Chrisses - Young and Snyder - shouldnt hit this poorly for an entire season. One can also say Dan Haren and Doug Davis have pitched over their established "heads" and Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds may be hard pressed to duplicate eye opening first halves.

In making sense of the 38-51 debacle, team apologists often fixate on where we'd stand if everyone was healthy and firing on all cylinders. That's results oriented fantasy.

Organizational advocates understandably emphasize Webb's injury, but play down the appalling lack of replacement depth at the back of the rotation. A number 6 like Brett Anderson (abandoned in the Haren deal), could've halved the impact of Webb's departure, exacerbated by a mess of cheap Josh Byrnes' charlatans sharing a collective ERA north of eight.

In addition, Bob Melvin and AJ Hinch have overseen terrific, even inspired, individual performances. Dan Haren has emerged as the premier stopper in the National League. Journeyman Doug Davis has pitched better than several clubs' aces and Scherzer isnt too far behind. Felipe Lopez and Gerardo Parra have emerged as pleasant surprises to most observers, and Upton and Reynolds are Arizona's biggest impact position players in years.

In light of these successes, isnt it sobering to consider we're still ten games behind lightly regarded, flawed clubs like the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies? Just a week ago, the Dbacks were eighteen games below .500. How far would Andrew Hinch's confused charges have fallen had Dan Haren not channeled Bob Gibson, circa 1968, for three consecutive months? If 21 year old Justin Upton didnt morph into an All Star on Bob Melvin's watch? Or if Mark Reynolds, 2008's league leader in errors and strikeouts, hadnt similarly rebounded with a 43HR / 27SB clip?

Of no concern to the dwindling clot of SedonaRed sycophants, but questions for discerning fans, about usurpers disguised as architects, baldly aspiring to lose half their games.

Rocky Times

You have to admire the chutzpah of a front office which parts with an established manager in May to give its team a midseason boost. I speak, of course, of the born again Colorado Rockies, who found themselves ten games below .500, hired Jim Tracy, and have scarcely lost since.



The Diamondbacks, by contrast, fell five games below .500 after a mere 17 contests, then fought even up (6-6) against the NL's best for two weeks straight. That sort of "gross underperformance", according to club CEO Derrick Hall, got Bob Melvin fired in favor of favored favorite Andrew Jay Hinch, Esq.



Hinch, the Dream Team's answer to not only jumpstart the men, but "change the nature of the job a little bit" is himself five games below .500 - damning enough on its face (the one Josh Byrnes is falling flat on) - were it not for this reasoned, unseasoned protege's cupcake schedule and comparative roster advantages over Melvin.

Both managers suffered the loss of Brandon Webb, but Melvin also missed his two most reliable hitters from 2008 - Stephen Drew and Conor Jackson. Drew returned from the DL for Hinch, and is starting to rip the ball as expected, and Jackson's mysterious and crippling April has finally been diagnosed and mercifully replaced by the NL's Rookie of the Month. The one unusual challenge Hinch faced - and which Melvin was spared - was the sudden and relatively minor practical absence - but devastating personal loss - of LOOGY Scott Schoeneweis.



Beyond that, the club's alarming recent spike in runs allowed appears at least somewhat managerially related - in that limiting runs (RA) was an immutable strength of Bob Melvin teams. Simply carping at Hinch, however, misses the bigger picture. Without pitching guru Bryan Price, an inadvertent casualty of Josh Byrnes' deflective blame game, this novice skipper now produces more regularly scheduled, prime time situation comedies than Norman Lear.

Eighth inning. Must see TV. Just. You. Watch!

Not Hinch's fault, necessarily. It's on Josh Byrnes, who trashed a decent manager, in hopes of shifting blame from the GM's longstanding failure to meet on field expectations. De rigeur for Byrnes, on his fourth hitting coach since 2006, who's built just one squad since then barely capable of outscoring opponents in baseball's weakest division.


The religious Rockies appear largely above such tawdry political machinations, and not surprisingly, sit above us in the standings as well. They matter of factly replaced their below average manager with an above average one, and like the Diamondbacks, are reaping their just rewards on earth - as it so often is in heaven.

The Philosophy of Organizational Aggrandizement

Before AJ Hinch ever coached a game, Diamondhacks distilled what his auspicious arrival primarily portended. Quite apart from driving tangible improvement, his head scratching hire was wordsmithed and painstakingly timed, to position and ultimately seize organizational credit for generally expected short term performance regressions, following an injury plagued and uniformly disappointing April.




Not a month into Hinch's 12-14 reign (versus weaker foes than Melvin faced), the front office Dream Team unveiled Phase II of its campaign to assume and assign credit for their hand picked Success Agent. Amidst an 8-0 rout of the hapless Padres (projected by many to lose 100 games), play-by-play toadie Daron Sutton dutifuly chimed in that the club is hitting "almost a hundred points higher" with runners in scoring position (RISP) than they did "in their first twenty nine games". This is true (well, seventy-six points [.262 v .186] when he said it, so true "enough"), but this was no impromptu trivia, blurted in the booth to kill time in a laugher.

The less than cryptic "twenty nine games" is a measure of Bob Melvin (12-17), the 2007 NL Manager of the Year-turned-scapegoat, who predated Josh Byrnes and CEO Derrick Hall, and who was Ken Kendrick's reluctant second choice following the West Virginian's self-inflicted Wally Backman debacle. These high class movers and fakers are too classy, it appears, for mouthpiece Daron to actually name the skipper they aimed to implicitly malign last night.

Sutton couldnt simply observe, for example, the team's hitting better "in May than in April", which reflects an even clearer statistical distinction for the public. No, the ponderous '29 games' spiel is their rather purposeful cue that Melvin couldnt manage an offense (and Hinch can) - although it bears mentioning (because Sutton assuredly didnt) that Rick Schu (another Josh Byrnes hire) was hitting coach during this entire inoffensive stretch. Schu, we recall with limited amusement, was this GM's 'answer' to replace Kevin Seitzer, Byrnes' earlier, outside the box, personnel "failure".



If that's all Sutton said, it wouldnt be a big deal, of course. Announcers say stuff like that all the time. In SedonaRedland, however, Daron's riff set up a pre-edited video segment with Jack Howell, this month's hitting guru. Howell emphasized working on batters' weaknesses and, unlike Seitzer, didnt say anything too aggrandizing. That came after, when Sutton proclaimed causality between recent BA/RISP gains and the efforts of Howell and Hinch.

It's not just happening, folks. It's the direct result of a philosophy.

There are substantive and political problems with this tone of declaration. Substantively, the samples are too small to draw that conclusion. The player samples (and circumstances) are also inconsistent. Is Schu culpable for trotting out his most consistent hitter (from 2008) with an undiagnosed case of valley fever? Or savaged for playing Augie and Josh Wilson, when Drew went on the DL? When it suited his agenda, Derrick Hall chirped about how TEP puts the whole team at an April disadvantage - now, the poor April hitting is on Melvin and Schu? How much credit does Howell deserve for a AA callup (Parra) hitting .667 (12/18) with RISP? I dont really know, but the point is, neither does Daron Sutton or anybody else.

The team is undoubtedly hitting better since Melvin left, but it's also a fact the three guys who hit for him (Upton, Lopez and Reynolds) have continued to hit under Hinch, and with the exception of a surging Snyder and reserve Ryan Roberts, the culprits who didnt hit for Bob in April (CY, Byrnes, Whitesell, Montero, even Drew for pity's sake), havent hit much since either. The biggest boost, so far and by far, has been Parra, who never played for Melvin, and Roberts, a 28 year old with a career .074 BA, who's been ethereally raking .400 for Howell. A month of this is being touted as a triumph of coaching philosophy? Seriously?

The more galling component of this quick and very dirty presumption is that Melvin and Schu are somehow responsible for the .186 BA in any meaningful sense; the idea that this young, ascendant offense might somehow be resigned to hit .186 w RiSP under Melvin going forward. Last night, Sutton praised Howell and Hinch for briefly overseeing a .262 RISP at Melvin's expense, despite the fact Melvin's 2008 squad, the one tirelessly lampooned for a lack of clutchness, hit .257 w RISP over an entire season. Talk about a disingenous, statistically insignificant comparison.

Is Daron unaware of such context? A big innocent earnestly trying to educate us, even if he doesnt "get" all the statistical implications?

Hardly.



Sutton himself is intensively 'coached', tutored, by statistical wonks - wizards if you must. Wizards well aware of data's limitations - and no doubt hip to Daron's contrived declaration and the disinformation campaign to come. That's the self-serving political aspect that's to be expected from a Dream Team with a long history of glossing over, and indeed blaming others for, their strategic and tactical missteps. The next time we're subjected to this sort of organizational blather, and I promise it wont be long, understand these sorts of things dont just just happen, folks - it's the direct result of a philosophy.

Managing Illusions

Hinch is such a desperate choice. What does his unusual hire say about our front office? AJ Hinch went to Stanford, which by this point, it's pretty clear is awfully important to Josh Byrnes. The Haverford alum's staff is famously dotted with similarly credentialed grunts from Harvard and MIT. It's not so much that Melvin (Cal) didnt make the grade, it's just telling, that for all the usual candidates milling around with managerial experience - even some within the org - our ivied brain trust opted for a Stanford man who never managed a team in his life.

It's a form of insecurity, and defiance, I think. The idea that "people near Josh" are somehow better qualified to manage a ballclub than, say, people who've managed ballclubs. In a way only "they" can understand. It reminds me of George W Bush's nomination of his personal counsel, Harriet Miers , to the United States Supreme Court, and may reveal an insulated, perhaps even bunker, mentality digging in on Jefferson Street.

The other "statement" here regards so called player development. Hinch was in charge of minor league progress. Melvin was criticised for not furthering those production arcs, most recently by CEO Derrick Hall, who observed the team has "grossly underperformed" for more than five months.

While it's true that regulars, young and old, endured miserable Aprils, the fact is several youngsters blossomed under Melvin's watch. Mark Reynolds came from nowhere to be a serviceable, if errratic, major league starter and is likely to hit thirty homers. Stephen Drew broke out in 2008. Prior to his mysterious ailment, Conor Jackson transformed himself from an inadequate first baseman to a base stealing, left fielding OBP mainstay. Justin Upton, amidst a fourteen game hitting streak, appears to "finally" be on the cusp of superstardom, at all of 21. And Max Scherzer is perhaps the greatest starting pitcher in major league history never to win a game.

Maybe this team has grossly underperformed for five days or weeks (maybe it hasnt), but the claim of five months is predictable, self-serving, front office swill. If Derrick Hall genuinely felt the final four to five months of the 2008 season represented "gross underperformance", wouldnt this winter have been the appropriate time for the newly minted CEO to part with the inadequate Melvin? Why would you stick with a skipper, responsible for nearly a season's worth of "gross underperformance" if you're serious about competing with the Dodgers, with this marvelous, kick ass team of yours? Wouldnt that be counterproductive? To let him screw up April as well?

What's closer to the truth, is that Bob Melvin's being scapegoated for a slow, injury-riddled start and for the strategic "sins" of his bosses. Scapegoated for structurally anemic rosters fashioned by Josh Byrnes and reluctant financier, Ken Kendrick. Scapegoated for pie in the sky fan "experience" and expectations, unabashedly oversold by Hall.

Hall and Byrnes, some may remember, inked two of the lengthiest contracts in the game for themselves. (At the time, only Alex Rodriguez had more job security in baseball). The pair of alarming eight year deals, terms undisclosed, were bestowed by the dynamic duo's mentor, Jeff Moorad, the brazenly conflicted chief of your San Diego Padres. Curious gestures, to say the least, for a GM outscored by opponents during his tenure in a terrible division, and for a CEO leading a firm that doesnt make any profit for its principals. Or so the story's told.

Bob Melvin, or more likely unbelievable short term luck, propelled one of those outscored mediocrities to ninety wins and an NLCS, in one of the game's truly historic anomalies. You'd think that might earn a guy some security. It turns out, about five months worth - three inhabiting first place. Five months of alleged "gross underperformance". Not just poor performance. Under-performance, by Josh Byrnes' brilliant, cant miss phenoms.

The truth is, Josh Byrnes' phenoms have been missing for years. More accurately, our front office has stubbornly misdiagnosed their naturally youthful shortcomings and failed to sufficiently temper that with enough veterans worth a damn. Eric Byrnes had a nice 2007. Orlando Hudson was a solid player. But our leaders failed to pay for, or recognize (Quentin, Uggla, Hairston) significant inherited talent to help Josh's kids with the heavy lifting. Several (Upton, Jackson, Reynolds) were brought up before their time, or in the wrong positions, to save paying established stopgaps a million or three, while the chosen ones muddled along for pocket change. For years, the Diamondbacks front office has cloaked a sorry, shallow collection of veteran positional players behind excellent pitching and an illusion of ready for prime time offensive phenoms who really werent.

Bob Melvin finally took the fall for that illusion, courtesy of entrenched political operators who crafted it and strung it along. They've not only politely blamed Bob for their underlying failures (and deceptions), they've timed his departure to virtually ensure another self-serving illusion: the short term success of their hand-picked replacement. Hinch will open at home, against the league's weakest team, the Washington Nationals (no relation to the Washington Generals apparently), followed by the non-revolutionary Reds.

It's tougher after that, but that should get Hinch off on better terms than if he had encountered BoMel's last dozen opponents (Matt Cain @ home, Cubs @ home [3], at Milwaukee[4], at LA [2], at Jake Peavy and at Chris Tall Young). Melvin went 6 and 6 there, nothing great, but a solid indicator his team is playing better than the 6-11 start to open the season. Justin Upton appears ready to be a franchise player. The pitching staff is one of the best in the league, again. Last year's most valuable position player (Drew) will come off the DL shortly. The team's most valuable pitcher (Webb) may be available after that. Manny is out for 50 games. There is little question the Diamondbacks will play better than their 6-11 start. They already were, and should continue to, regardless of manager. This very public change isnt about playing better ball.

It's about taking credit for it.